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Pattern May 2026

Raining The Shawshank Redemption GIF
 
RDU's record low for May 3rd is 37, set back in 1978. The current forecast for Sunday morning is a low of 40, so that'll be something to watch.

The record low maxes for May 1st and May 3rd are 57 and we are forecasted for a high of 58 on Saturday (May 2nd). Unfortunately, May 2nd's low max is 53 so that's not likely to fall.
 
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Think I might die of hypothermia. Mid 50s brutal for May 1
I was playing 18 up here a few years back on Memorial Day, it was 50s, light rain and breezy. Had on 3 layers of clothes and a rain suit, quit after 9! It was brutal
 
I was playing 18 up here a few years back on Memorial Day, it was 50s, light rain and breezy. Had on 3 layers of clothes and a rain suit, quit after 9! It was brutal
Let’s go play 18 at Carolina Springs!
 
Well, that last-minute yank to the south left MBY with only flurries, I mean sprinkles.

On the other hand, pockets of near-freezing temps in rural pockets tomorrow morning have prompted a spousal unit demand for a relight of the basement radiant gas heater.
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I know we need the rain, but this cool and rainy weather today is miserable. I'm supposed to go to the Durham Bulls game tonight. Already have tickets. I am hoping they cancel it.

Weather should clear out by this afternoon I’ll be surprised if they cancel. Rain is basically done in the Raleigh area it will be a cool night but should be a nice night at the ball park


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70ºF/55ºF high/low today, seasonably cool but surprise nice day with full sun now and dewpoints dropped into the 30s...the rain fully missed to the south and east. Just had some spotty drizzle this morning, no rain accumulation
 
Sorry RC and others who got little or no rain as I can empathize due to being in extreme drought. Hopefully rain will pick up for y’all soon.

Since the middle of last night, my area had ~18 hours of near continuous rain, which added to ~1.2” at my place. This was well predicted. It was a near perfect rain to help with drought since it was mainly light to moderate meaning little runoff. I’ll refine this final amount later, if needed. Yesterday’s showers added to only a few hundredths.

This is the first event with 1”+ here since way back on Dec 4-5 thus showing how bad it had been here! That also means ~2.2” over the last 7 days in an area that had gone to extreme drought on the latest map due to extreme dryness back to Sept, near the worst drought condition in the US. This doesn’t end the drought but does put a little dent in it even if only temporary.

This event also helped with the big fires to the SW.

Due to the rain and N winds north of the front, it was quite cool for May with low 60s all day.
 
We got a pretty good lick of frost this a.m. def gonna have some damage in the gardens. 2cnd time mine has been hit. Pinch off a lot of plant leaves from last one and had recovered nicely. This frost was a lot more pronounced heavier.
Bone dry still.
Never even received a drop of drizzle yesterday from here back NW. Everyone was mowing Hay after noon time. Short this spring. Want get but 2 cuts this year without any rain
 
46°F low here this morning after light rain in the 50s all day yesterday, and I'm fairly close to the coast and it's May. Disgusting

Widespread 30s west of I-95, including a 30°F low in Siler City. What do the Carolinas and the Siberian taiga or Alaska or the Canadian Shield have in common? They're capable of frost in May!
 
I did end up with .28 inches of rain in the gauge to the southeast of Lake Wheeler in Southern Raleigh. It was less than the one inch totals that were being forecasted a few days ago but I am not unhappy about it. More rain chances appear to be cards later this week and severe weather which has been almost non existent is a possibility.

The cool highs in the upper fifties were perfect for the Civil War reenactment yesterday. Unlike last year, i hardly broke a sweat in my wool uniform.
 
The current hemispheric weather maps seem to give no hope to the idea that some sections of the USA will break out of cold frontal passages and cloud cover. But the longer you go into the future, considering the rise of El Nino and defined hot/dry areas, slowly a likely warmer turn emerges. This is wrapped around the idea that in a well-defined +ENSO signal that should reach a moderate stance (+1.0) somewhat sooner than expected, the Sonoran and Bermudan heat ridge complexes will start gaining latitude and show slow retrogression. Marine layer issues may keep the California coastal cities cool, and the Northeast may struggle mightily to be rid of polar air. But the cores of the subtropical high will, sooner or later, bring impressive warming to the western half of the nation as well as locations to the right of the Mississippi River.

This process likely will entail reduction of thunderstorm coverage in late May and June. The best odds on intense convection should be from the north central and Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/New England. The fear is that drought will be re-established in Texas, Dixie and the Intermountain Region/High Plains. If the Atlantic Basin turns warmer soon enough, we could see a more expansive ridge complex off of North Carolina that might finally bring hot weather into the Interstate 95 corridor. Latitude gains in the ridge system should be evident soon, nearing the Mexican border and also covering the Gulf Stream within two weeks or so.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 2:00 P.M. CT
 
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