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Pattern May 2026

Oh boy, the Euro is ugly right through day 15. This drought is going to get MUCH worse. For those of us old enough to remember 1986 and 1993, I think that's where this summer is going.
 
Flirty Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
icon and euro sure; but the ai models and the rest of guidance still look okay for this weekend for a lot of people
 
Yeah I remember when we were gonna have widespread rain tomorrow too

Now it's all down in Texas

well this time around, we have a low pressure developing and blossoming off the coast. i'll be happy with an inch or so down this way; i think southern areas i-20 south do great.

nbm is putting down 1.43 inches in cae, while putting down 0.85 in gsp
probabilities wise down here, it has 81% chance of > 1.00 and 20% of > 2.00
 
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A couple of models (like 6z GFS) did trend NW. But The 6z UKMET went more southeast. We're just doomed to stay dry for a little longer. I don't trust any model output dealing with QPF. Always bet on the drought side.
 
A couple of models (like 6z GFS) did trend NW. But The 6z UKMET went more southeast. We're just doomed to stay dry for a little longer. I don't trust any model output dealing with QPF. Always bet on the drought side.
Its hard for me to look at this
1777637084904.png

and really think we are going to totally whiff, but I did just sit here and watch almost the entire state get a foot of snow while I got 1.5 so.
 
this morning is overperforming locally already
I was surprised to walk out this morning and see some raindrops on my car windshield and I ran into a sprinkle on the way to work. Some areas are getting measurable precipitation. I hope Saturday's system will be a overperformer too.
 
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Latest CFS runs all the way out to June 2cnd. Never gets to 80 degrees in Greensboro the entire run. Multiple78-79's. That would be something. The qpf map shows the drought getting worked on everywhere but the Carolinas /North Georgia/VA. Very noticeable doughnut hole shaded 2-3 inches less qpf, compared to the Mid west to the east coast.
 
The two big SE GA fires are now ~40% contained thanks to help from recent rains down there.

My area has had some showers this morning, which includes some isolated small heavier ones. The main show (widespread 1”+) for here as well as for the fire areas is tonight through tomorrow.
 
Losing the QPF this close in is not what we want to see. Hopefully we still get decent falls.

This is a corn field just down the road. There's a little fuzz of 1"-2" seedlings. Some fields down lower near swamps are rivers are slightly better but this is as bad as I've ever seen. Went through the Green Sea and Loris SC area earlier this week and they were re-planting tobacco. The first batch that was set out shriveled and died. Quite literally our only saving grace is that it hasn't been too hot.
 

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