• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Marvelous March

Myfrotho704_ said:
But yet again when it happens during daytime dynamics are enhanced, better instability/lift, still would rather have this happen during night
Click to expand...
It does have a convective look to it, so IF that played out verbatim some graupel maybe, even maybe a burst or two of snow. And as RC pointed out if that ULL were further south I'd almost say game on. March can be fun
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I find the upcoming pattern at least giving us some optimism.. I mean first we know these storms are still well out with range where significant changes in temperature and dynamics can occur within 72 hours. I think having the Consistency in showing a storm potential and upper level low potential is a great start rn.. it’s easy to get discouraged but if anything the models are trending better and better each run with regards to actual storm potential. Now let’s track as we do every storm and see the potential that exists.
Click to expand...

I'm talking for the board as a whole as opposed to just N NC. The GFS runs have trended warmer. That in itself can't be good for potential especially when we're talking late March, and especially those south of where you live (northern NC).

Does anyone remember my post from around Tue or Wed asking how much folks would bet against wintry precip south of TN/NC when the GFS was very cold? Things have changed a lot since. The cold bias is still very much there.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
1. I think pure bowling balls/ULLs are generally overrated for wintry precip. potential for much of the SE US outside the mtns. OTOH, nothing even comes close to GOM low related potential for the SE in general. The only major ATL snow that I'm aware of from a pure bowling ball was 3/1/2009 though they've had some lead to nonmajor snow. Keep in mind that I've looked at historical wx maps for most of the major storms. Upper level maps go back to the 1950s.
2. The really cold for mid to late March GFS solutions we were seeing as recently as the Wednesday runs for 3/16-22 (remember that run giving Waycross a 31 on ~2/21?) with the 850 mb 0C line going well down into FL have not been showing up since. I've lost the excitement I had as it now appears they were for the zillionth time this winter just mirages.
Click to expand...
There have been some good thumps of snow from ULL outside of the Mountains over the years, I'm not the research guy (and my brain certainly isn't archival) but seems SC has done well, some areas down south (Ms, Al, La even) have. It's rare of course. Thing I like about them is their unpredictability and usually bring very interesting convective precip.... snow, graupel, hail. I've seen a couple in my lifetime that have those fun but annoying "snow islands".
 
I think also you have to take into consideration how no model (outside of last nights 00z EPS) saw any sort of front end sleet or snow action for anyone in NC or upstate SC but Charlotte is 48 degrees and we’re still getting reports of sleet as well as here where I’ve still seen a few flakes and sleet mixed in at 45 ... goes to show when you deal with a lot of cold air above the surface that can easily be mixed down to the ground... all that said I agree that NC/Tennessee have a better outlook on these type of scenarios and understand others in the southeast get shunted
 
GaWx said:
1. I think pure bowling balls/ULLs are generally overrated for wintry precip. potential for much of the SE US outside the mtns. OTOH, nothing even comes close to GOM low related potential for the SE in general. The only major ATL snow that I'm aware of from a pure bowling ball was 3/1/2009 though they've had some lead to nonmajor snow. Keep in mind that I've looked at historical wx maps for most of the major storms. Upper level maps go back to the 1950s.
2. The really cold for mid to late March GFS solutions we were seeing as recently as the Wednesday runs for 3/16-22 (remember that run giving Waycross a 31 on ~2/21?) with the 850 mb 0C line going well down into FL have not been showing up since. I've lost the excitement I had as it now appears they were for the zillionth time this winter just mirages.
Click to expand...

ULLs have done well in NC, and that one back in nov 2014(sc) but that’s not the rest of the SE lol, got a nice convective burst of snow just last year from one, they can be annoying but they can be so interesting, but like I said they have done well in NC
 
GaWx said:
1. I think pure bowling balls/ULLs are generally overrated for wintry precip. potential for much of the SE US outside the mtns. OTOH, nothing even comes close to GOM low related potential for the SE in general. The only major ATL snow that I'm aware of from a pure bowling ball was 3/1/2009 though they've had some lead to nonmajor snow. Keep in mind that I've looked at historical wx maps for most of the major storms. Upper level maps go back to the 1950s.
2. The really cold for mid to late March GFS solutions we were seeing as recently as the Wednesday runs for 3/16-22 (remember that run giving Waycross a 31 on ~2/21?) with the 850 mb 0C line going well down into FL have not been showing up since. I've lost the excitement I had as it now appears they were for the zillionth time this winter just mirages.
Click to expand...


February 28, 2004. Got 17 inches from one, other parts of county 19. Seen several over the years. Think Big frosty cashed in on a few, one was in past couple years a March 19 incher if Im not mistaken.
 
Well Gfs twins were eh I mean signal still there nothing to complain about this far out (for upper southeast) the CMC actually looks pretty good as well as the ICON and I guess we wait for ensembles and euro now
 
The only period that looks like it could eventually have a snowball's chance in hell to become moderately interesting down the road w/ a few minor synoptic-scale tweaks is near & right before the vernal equinox (March 17-23 ish) from NC/TN & points north. A front associated with the trough that'll cross the US late this week is forecast to stall somewhere over the north-central Gulf, Florida, & SE US coast w/ multiple, weak waves of low pressure riding along it in conjunction w/ a deep, cold trough centered over the Lakes ushering in an airmass that would even be average or seasonably cool for the heart of winter for the upper south.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The only period that looks like it could eventually have a snowball's chance in hell to become moderately interesting down the road w/ a few minor synoptic-scale tweaks is near & right before the vernal equinox (March 17-23 ish) from NC/TN & points north. A front associated with the trough that'll cross the US late this week is forecast to stall somewhere over the north-central Gulf, Florida, & SE US coast w/ multiple, weak waves of low pressure riding along it in conjunction w/ a deep, cold trough centered over the Lakes ushering in an airmass that would even be average or seasonably cool for the heart of winter for the upper south.
Click to expand...
Won't you need an airmass that is much colder than what the average would be in the heart of winter ? Averages in the upper south in the heart of winter are way too warm for snow.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Won't you need an airmass that is much colder than what the average would be in the heart of winter ? Averages in the upper south in the heart of winter are way too warm for snow.
Click to expand...

Average temps in the vey heart of winter are marginally cold enough for snow along & north of I-40 in NC & TN esp w/ nighttime temperatures at/slightly below freezing.
 
Euro looked like it was going for glory last night just a classic look for a good storm. Beautiful +PNA ridge. Looks like a low pressure is going to try and come on up the east coast. Just looked st the CMC and it looks like it’s trying to do the same thing.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Euro looked like it was going for glory last night just a classic look for a good storm. Beautiful +PNA ridge. Looks like a low pressure is going to try and come on up the east coast. Just looked st the CMC and it looks like it’s trying to do the same thing.
Click to expand...
12z GFS looked similar for that time period as well.
 
Fv3 goin for glory for everyone at the end of its run but it’s fantasy but interesting trends on models today
 

Attachments

  • 9C4E6D42-85E7-45B7-903D-B12AD983E6C4.jpeg
    9C4E6D42-85E7-45B7-903D-B12AD983E6C4.jpeg
    796 KB · Views: 85
12Z Euro: freezes ATL & much of well inland SE 3/18-9 & 30s to @pcbjr
Winter far from over per models
 
Last edited:
Pretty tight gradient across Metro Atlanta today.

Lawrenceville is 53*F while it's 76*F here.
 
68c87725b2be532824ad40cce313bdfd.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro: freezes ATL & much of well inland SE 3/18-9 & 30s to @pcbjr
Winter far from over per models
Click to expand...
JB has been talking about this timeframe for about a week now. Hopefully models finally are on to something. Appreciate your hard work on this forum.
 
The wedge is killing it here. 34 now and forecast to be 70ish tomorrow. Enjoy the last night cycle of "early" model runs for a while! Hoping we have one last shot at a good storm this spring!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top