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Pattern Marvelous March

Tacoma said:
guys are things going in the right direction for a change, don't we need another model or two to jump on board?
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Well the progressive GFS with such a large shift so soon is worrying for even most of NC.
The FV3 which is snow happy doesn't have jack.
The UKMET might be good from what I've seen.
Euro shifted closer to the coast majorly in one run..

At 5-6 days, an apps runner or a coastal bomb is still in the picture.. or nothing at all.
Stay tuned on "As The Weather Turns".
 
Tacoma said:
guys are things going in the right direction for a change, don't we need another model or two to jump on board?
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Honestly, I'd rather go back to the suppressed look. I don't want a snow storm right now, I want a look that will benefit us when the NW trend occurs
 
Yeah honestly I'm not too excited with this run. I was hoping we could hold out a couple days with more or less a look we had at 12Z, because the way this jumped, one more jump and it's in Ohio. Maybe it's just me burned by the "first wave" though lol.
 
Shawn said:
Well the progressive GFS with such a large shift so soon is worrying for even most of NC.
The FV3 which is snow happy doesn't have jack.
The UKMET might be good from what I've seen.
Euro shifted closer to the coast majorly in one run..

At 5-6 days, an apps runner or a coastal bomb is still in the picture.. or nothing at all.
Stay tuned on "As The Weather Turns".
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I think the euro today was further South East actually cause I was just thanking GFS was looking great but wanted to remind everyone the euro was a big South East whiff

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Sleet City USA said:
Honestly, I'd rather go back to the suppressed look. I don't want a snow storm right now, I want a look that will benefit us when the NW trend occurs
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I agree 100%. The fact that the Euro is still suppressed is a good thing... Was this a case of the GFS getting a clue or the first step in losing our storm to the NW trend? In the old days it would be a good thing to see this at 5-6 days out, but not this year. We are gun-shy from all the false starts.
 
metwannabe said:
I think the euro today was further South East actually cause I was just thanking GFS was looking great but wanted to remind everyone the euro was a big South East whiff

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Oh yes. I think it was the EPS I looked at maybe? Too many maps!
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I agree 100%. The fact that the Euro is still suppressed is a good thing... Was this a case of the GFS getting a clue or the first step in losing our storm to the NW trend? In the old days it would be a good thing to see this at 5-6 days out, but not this year. We are gun-shy from all the false starts.
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I'm actually not worried, it was the euro that fired the 1st warning shots of the NW trend with that 1st wave about 5-6 days out and the GFS started caving a few model runs later. So with the euro still being suppressed, not giving a lot of weight to the GFS NW trend just yet.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Enjoy your digitalized snow while you can, or hope for some luck and it going back to a suppressed look
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As we get closer we don’t want to see suppression if we miss a storm from being too suppressed in a pattern where every storm has missed us by being too amped ... we’d all not survive... this is what u want to see a storm signal over where a storm is going to be 5 Days out
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
As we get closer we don’t want to see suppression if we miss a storm from being too suppressed in a pattern where every storm has missed us by being too amped ... we’d all not survive... this is what u want to see a storm signal over where a storm is going to be 5 Days out
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i was Joking, well it was half a joke, but yeah we’re about the find out what the gefs says
 
What a turnaround for the GFS. Now it's back to the same look it had for most of the runs on Monday. Widespread 2 to 6 inches for NC again. Back and forth we go. This is actually how it goes most of the time when we do end up getting a storm. We get a storm signal about 10 to 14 days out, one model shows it past 7 days, another one comes one board, then they lose it, and then one by one start coming back inside 5 days.
 
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GaWx said:
Any prediction would just be a wild guess by anyone pretty much. If you mean a hard freeze, hopefully not but still way too early to say. But I wouldn't bet against a light freeze in NW Mississippi.
The 12Z EPS mean was colder for March 11 with a light freeze very close.
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Thank you kindly.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Now we want future runs to get more juicy and cold for better rates
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Here's the thing.... we have the potential for an amped up coastal storm. We also have some really cold air for this time of year hanging around. If they would just dance we could be looking at a really historic event. That would be a heck of a way to end this winter.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Here's the thing.... we have the potential for an amped up coastal storm. We also have some really cold air for this time of year hanging around. If they would just dance we could be looking at a really historic event. That would be a heck of a way to end this winter.
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Exactly what I’m saying, this setup could really produce if things go right
 
Couple more bring it north to the point where it’s rain but some are really suppressed, only 144-150 hours out
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Cad Wedge NC said:
Here's the thing.... we have the potential for an amped up coastal storm. We also have some really cold air for this time of year hanging around. If they would just dance we could be looking at a really historic event. That would be a heck of a way to end this winter.
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It actually makes sense. We had a big storm the first week of December, a lot earlier than usual. Might as well have another one a lot later in winter than usual.
 
Brick Tamland said:
It actually makes sense. We had a big storm the first week of December, a lot earlier than usual. Might as well have another one a lot later in winter than usual.
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December has nothing to do with now. And if I used that logic last year I would have had a big storm again but I didn't. The weather will do what it wants. Also. An amped up storm is not good for your area. Amp it up a ton and you have a good storm for N GA into W NC as well as N AL.
 
David Lowery said:
Yes. But last two hurricanes were real bad. First hurricane I ever seen that was significant was Fran. I almost like got killed in Fran. Too this day I will never forget the damage that hurricane inflicted on my hometown
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Its definitely been crazy last couple of years but it came off a long streak of no majors
 
ForsythSnow said:
December has nothing to do with now. And if I used that logic last year I would have had a big storm again but I didn't. The weather will do what it wants. Also. An amped up storm is not good for your area. Amp it up a ton and you have a good storm for N GA into W NC as well as N AL.
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I know it has nothing to do with now. But I am saying it would be fitting to end up like that with the way there has been nothing in between.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know it has nothing to do with now. But I am saying it would be fitting to end up like that with the way there has been nothing in between.
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I'm just going to hold out hope and be greedy that this thing is colder, comes South across North Central Florida, and heads out to sea finally gives the Midlands and I-20 a true snow storm. ATL too.
 
Shawn said:
I'm just going to hold out hope and be greedy that this thing is colder, comes South across North Central Florida, and heads out to sea finally gives the Midlands and I-20 a true snow storm. ATL too.
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amen brother!
 
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