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Pattern Marvelous March

snowlover91 said:
It's possible this trends north as we get closer to verification but that isn't a given. Depending on how the cold press sets up this could also still be suppressed. It's definitely a solid look at this stage in the game, probably about the best look we could hope for at this stage. The Euro and GFS both showing solid winter weather threats and the UK setting up for one as well are encouraging signs to me since they are the top 3 models right now. Interestingly the Fv3 being suppressed fits perfectly with the bias it has to be too cold and lower 5h values than reality at day 5+. Once it adjusts north it will likely have a track similar to the Euro and GFS.
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The key is that block, IMO. Most of the time, at least in my experience model-watching, winter storms trend north as heights trend north and we just end up with rain. And most of the time when that happens it is without the presence of a large block up north. When we have a large block, such as the one we are progged to get in the location where we are progged to get it, it tends minimize north creep. Same is true with a big -NAO block. This is usually the one time we see things trend a little more suppressed as opposed to the other way around. Anyway, this is the scenario we want. Can we capitalize? Remains to be seen.

We need to watch that block and see whether or not it is modeled weaker and weaker through time and/or whether or not it sets up farther north and/or west through time. We want it strong and pressing southeast as much as it can.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Thanks to Kylo inadvertently forcing me to do this composite of about 15 large winter storms east of the mtns in NC since 1959-60, it was pretty obvious to me yesterday a winter storm had some legitimacy in this timeframe (esp March 3-4) if we held this look at 500mb over North America a few more days.

Our pattern is virtually right on the $$ w/ the composite.

View attachment 16567

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A pretty close match especially since this is only 6 days out on the Euro.

Btw it's interesting to note the model bias and verification scores since we have a system to finally track.

First of all model bias. Notice the Euro is the clear winner here 5 days out and it's not even close. Meanwhile the Fv3 is the worst performing model with a significant negative 5h bias (cold, suppressed) which also explains why it has this system to our south.
5h bias.jpg

Now the 5H verification scores. It's interesting that the top 3 models are the Euro, UK and CMC in that order. Ironically the CMC is outperforming both the GFS and Fv3.
5h verification .jpg
 
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One other chart. Here is the 6 day 850 temp bias charts. The UK has done exceedingly well, it will be a model to watch as we get into range.
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snowlover91 said:
A pretty close match especially since this is only 6 days out on the Euro.

Btw it's interesting to note the model bias and verification scores with an upcoming system.

First of all model bias. Notice the Euro is the clear winner here 5 days out and it's not even close. Meanwhile the Fv3 is the worst performing model with a significant negative 5h bias (cold, suppressed) which also explains why it has this system to our south.
View attachment 16569

Now the 5H verification scores. It's interesting that the top 3 models are the Euro, UK and CMC in that order. Ironically the CMC is outperforming both the GFS and Fv3.
View attachment 16570
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The FV3 is still bad, but looks like it's slowly improving. At least it's not dipping as much as it did weeks ago but I still wouldn't ride it when relying on cold as mentioned.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The FV3 is still bad, but looks like it's slowly improving. At least it's not dipping as much as it did weeks ago but I still wouldn't ride it when relying on cold as mentioned.
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Yeah it's still horrible and likely explains why it is suppressing this storm to the south. I expect it will gradually adjust north in the coming days to come in better agreement with the other globals. For me the two key models to watch will be the Euro and UK as they have been doing the best overall with very little bias and the best verification scores at day 5.

Having said that, even at 4 days out it's interesting the big jump that the Euro made to a colder solution today vs it's prior runs.
ecmwf_T850_us_fh96_trend.gif
 
12z EPS through day 10
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KyloG said:
Meh...all in all, still look promising. Yesterday, this wasn't even a threat.

Low crossing the panhandle is usually a good track. Though, these almost always end up further NW.

View attachment 16577
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Definitely doesn't help when the trough over Atlantic Canada has gotten weaker the past few runs and the trailing wave over the upper midwest is dragging its feet.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Definitely doesn't help when the trough over Atlantic Canada has gotten weaker the past few runs and the trailing wave over the upper midwest is dragging its feet.
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We need you to sell out and go all in with us weenies . We can’t handle reality . We need the smart ones on our side


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I think being March. And considering how the models have been this year. I believe we should wait till it gets into 5 days out to take it seriously. That’s what I’m doing anyway.


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Storm5 said:
We need you to sell out and go all in with us weenies . We can’t handle reality . We need the smart ones on our side


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I'm really about as all in as I can be at this stage in the game. I can clearly see we have the right pattern in place to produce a storm at least in central NC, there's some legitimate model support now, but reality may not be so forgiving in the end. Having at least 2 threats here gives us some hope that one of these will produce. I'd like a nice bookend storm to push NC's snowfall solidly above average for the state as a whole & to allow me to make an interesting seasonal map. The early December storm already pushed us to the long term median of ~5".
 
GaWx said:
You’ll do realize that this snow accum formula is way off, right? S GA, much less far N FL, is NOT even getting snow with 850s comfortably above 0C and the surface well above 32. Tidbits is way off here. This looks plain silly.
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Yeah your right, I realize that. I figure, I'm just having a little fun with its crazy clown map knowing this is our last chance of the season. I'm all in, even with the stupid fv3, LOL!!!
 
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