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Pattern Marvelous March

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Okay Euro is on board with a storm albeit a little north of our liking but it’s showing it so .... should we fire up the thread to boost the 18z Gfs twins confidence?
 
I think we are in a good position to almost start a thread those pics above definitely don’t scream no threat at all but agree we should wait for a little more consistency
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I think we are in a good position to almost start a thread those pics above definitely don’t scream no threat at all but agree we should wait for a little more consistency
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We’re not even close, give it at least 3 more days before cranking up a thread. That’s if we even make it that far. Having consistent support inside about day 6 is a good minimum benchmark we need to produce a thread
 
The EPS continues to get warmer in the extended as we move in closer, hopefully these changes don’t push the baroclinic zone so far north for our likely fictious day 9 storm it ends up in the lakes and OH valley but I’m not going to hold my breath
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS continues to get warmer in the extended as we move in closer, hopefully these changes don’t push the baroclinic zone so far north for our likely fictious day 9 storm it ends up in the lakes and OH valley but I’m not going to hold my breath
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It could send it to Canada for all I care... this rain is relentless

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18z Gfs and Fv3 continues with the wintry storm signal. Maybe just Maybe this might finally be our chance for board wide event.
 
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So, I have been off the board all day. Is the March 2 storm off the table now, and we're looking at March 4? I guess it is good that multiple models have a storm signal for then, especially the Euro. But I think the same thing happened with the Msrch 2 threat. Maybe it's just coming in slower now.
 
ajr said:
That’s really not bad... let’s see if we can reel this one in
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Myfrotho704_ said:
not no big nw trend with this thing, I gotta say this is a good look
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If folks go with the mentality of I’m not expecting anything at all but there’s a small chance something can happen and this allows me SOME hope, I’d say that would be a good thing. But if folks are looking at this as something likely to work out, that’s setting them up for trouble with disappointment down the road assuming it doesn’t happen. I’m not predicting it won’t happen as I’m not making a prediction, but I think the odds are against it more than for it for obvious reasons. Regardless, I think there really is more than a minuscule chance and enough of a chance for keeping some hope.
 
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GaWx said:
If folks go with the mentality of I’m not expecting anything at all but there’s a small chance something can happen and this allows me SOME hope, I’d say that would be a good thing. But if folks are looking at this as something likely to work out, that’s when they get themselves into trouble with disappointment down the road assuming it doesn’t happen.
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Clap clap and clap again with a standing ovation ... ;)
 
GaWx said:
If folks go with the mentality of I’m not expecting anything at all but there’s a small chance something can happen and this allows me SOME hope, I’d say that would be a good thing. But if folks are looking at this as something likely to work out, that’s setting them up for trouble with disappointment down the road assuming it doesn’t happen. I’m not predicting it won’t happen as I’m not making a prediction, but I think the odds are against it more than for it for obvious reasons. Regardless, I think there really is more than a minuscule chance and enough of a chance for keeping some hope.
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I’m acting like it’s one of our typical day 7-10 storms that pops up, just something to watch and see if it can go below 7 days lol, not expecting but maybe some good signs
 
Anyone else worried about this? Even if this event stays on the models, these temps are not gonna cut it
gfs_T2m_seus_37.png
 
GaWx said:
If folks go with the mentality of I’m not expecting anything at all but there’s a small chance something can happen and this allows me SOME hope, I’d say that would be a good thing. But if folks are looking at this as something likely to work out, that’s setting them up for trouble with disappointment down the road assuming it doesn’t happen. I’m not predicting it won’t happen as I’m not making a prediction, but I think the odds are against it more than for it for obvious reasons. Regardless, I think there really is more than a minuscule chance and enough of a chance for keeping some hope.
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Well, up here in western NC, I am banking on this early March time-frame as our last chance at a big dog. We know it can go bad quickly, but might as well go all-in. After all, it's the end of our climo favored snow period. After March 15th it's more of a novelty event.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m acting like it’s one of our typical day 7-10 storms that pops up, just something to watch and see if it can go below 7 days lol, not expecting but maybe some good signs
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The one variable that makes this not your average run of the mill setup is that the gfs keeps showing Chi setting impressive new records for cold lows/highs Mar 3-5. That’s not only about as cold as it has ever gotten there in March, but it is a 3 day version of that! Unfortunately, like the last time Chicago did this in late Jan, there’s nothing more than a glancing hit from the cold being modeled thanks this time to having a -PNA. Actually though, the best shot at a SE winter storm is when there’s no severe cold plunge since that normally means no more than something usually minor like an anafrontal setup or flurries following it. The best bet is when there’s a severely cold airmass that doesn’t plunge and instead the SE gets the bottom of it as the center of it goes by to our north allowing for moisture to start coming in (WSW H5 flow, NE lower level flow) quickly enough before warmup for mischief, sometimes with a wedge but not necessarily. I still think there’s a chance (still small as of now but high enough to have hope) that this combination could still happen keeping in mind we have the advantage of a stupid cold airmass of an unusually long duration almost certainly destined for the Midwest. We just have to tap more of that cold much further south than is being shown. With this still being over a week away, that’s just far out enough to allow big favorable changes in this regard. That being said, we probably need to see these changes within no later than the next 3 days and probably need to at least see some hints even sooner.
 
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Sleet City USA said:
Anyone else worried about this? Even if this event stays on the models, these temps are not gonna cut it
gfs_T2m_seus_37.png
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No not at all.... My dewpoint is near 0F at the surface (wet-bulb is below freezing) at that time, and the temps are below freezing a couple of hundred feet up. The entire column is solidly below freezing except for a very small area right on the surface. Check out the sounding....
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