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Pattern Marvelous March

ICON had a colder rain at 00z. It’s still rain but a notably colder one if you’re into that. GFS went north and no longer has frozen precip into SC. And that, as they say, is that
 
A few tweaks and this could have worked out very nicely. Move that ridge back west and erase that big low off the west coast. Also get some of that ridging east of Greenland to situate on top of that PV and we would have been in bidness!

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Not far off from some wintry precip falling this week. NWS Blacksburg already mentioning ice pellets/snow tonight for the mountains given the dry air...and Thursday/Friday system may end up further west and have a leading edge of sleet around Winston-Salem NC to Danville, VA and points west.
 
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RGEM is cold enough for a winter storm if precip is 2-3 counties further west than expected Thursday. Already showing some mixed precipitation along the outer bands.
 
The skies cleared late last night and allowed for a low at KSAV of 37. That’s pretty notable cold for March 20 and was about 5 colder than forecasted.
 
NAM looks a little sleety from Davie County NC into Virgina. Convective like returns around 39 degrees at 4am. Low to mid 30s south-west Virgina...close call for the blue ridge. Might see a slop fall in Sparta, Jefferson and Boone.
 
Earlier maps suggest there will not be much of a cold plunge and related snow threat for the Carolinas on the 12Z GFS. Let’s see if this verifies.
 
GaWx said:
Earlier maps suggest there will not be much of a cold plunge and related snow threat for the Carolinas on the 12Z GFS. Let’s see if this verifies.
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I’ve seen worse! Looks better than 6zA4EDEE46-7FCC-462B-AB1D-8C5E4C4E7758.png
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Fv3 much improved from previous runs but just a section of NC gets a big dog
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Both the gfs and fv3 start the 26 off around 60 degrees at midnight before temps crash during the morning hours, with noon temps around 37 or so. I’m not sure how ideal that kind of a setup is for snow, especially considering the magnitude of the cold and time of year. Speaking for RDU.
 
The big cooling trend of the models for the SE for late this month has ended from all indications. The trend now appears to be reversing to a little warmer.
 
GaWx said:
The big cooling trend of the models for the SE for late this month has ended from all indications. The trend now appears to be reversing to a little warmer.
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Not surprised.

To get the type of snow event and cold blast some of the models have been teasing at this latitude in late March would be anomalous.
 
Early 12Z Euro maps suggest it will be warmer than its 0Z run. Are we already close to being able to call off the significant threat of anything widespread and major for the Carolinas? Maybe.
 
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GaWx said:
The skies cleared late last night and allowed for a low at KSAV of 37. That’s pretty notable cold for March 20 and was about 5 colder than forecasted.
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My lows have been coming in well below forecasted since last Saturday morning. My lowest forecasted low was supposed to be 30. My actual lows were 26.2 , 26.0 , 27.5 , 25.0 and 28.9 this morning. It’s been nice to say the least.
 
GaWx said:
Early 12Z Euro maps suggest it will be warmer than its 0Z run. Are we already close to being able to call off the significant threat of anything widespread and major for the Carolinas? Maybe.
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Actually they came in colder but all 1"+ snow accum. is in VA per the clown.
 
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