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Severe March 9-10 Arklatex/Lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast Severe threat

Webberweather53

Webberweather53

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This period has consistently looked intriguing on NWP the last several days and those in the Arklatex, lower MS & TN valley, as well as the Gulf coast should keep an eye on this threat for severe weather this time next week.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the SPC highlight a risk area within the next few days

download - 2019-03-02T153631.849.png

Screen Shot 2019-03-02 at 3.36.19 PM.png
 
Just wanted to see this for fun atm but gfs shows something we’ve lacked with these other threats, guess what it is on here
183AAF6F-2D8A-47CE-BA16-338CEBB16471.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Just wanted to see this for fun atm but gfs shows something we’ve lacked with these other threats, guess what it is on here
View attachment 17145
Click to expand...

Yeah the overall setup we have here synoptically is one that usually produces big tornado outbreaks in April & May. Boundary layer is a little cooler now so the northward extent will be limited but this definitely looks interesting for climatologically favored areas of the Arklatex & Dixie Alley perhaps even the TN Valley.
 
It's interesting to me that this thread has been started so far out. Obviously modeling has been consistent or that wouldn't have happened. Definitely something to keep an eye on. I rely on this board quite a bit for info like this since my model reading skill is pretty limited. Thanks to all who contribute.
 
GFS still has a big time severe weather event from Texas to North Carolina next weekend. Hasn't backed down really at all over the past few days.
 
6z GFS indicating a large scale event on Friday and Saturday for the Arklatex area, then move to Alabama/GA on Sunday. Would be by far our biggest threat of the year.
 
Differences in the models become increasingly evident with time
however, starting Day 6 and then continuing into Day 7, with respect
to intensity and speed of advance of this feature. As the trough
crosses the Rockies, an associated surface low is progged to emerge
into the Plains, with low-level theta-e advection of an at least
partially modified Gulf airmass to commence.

Overall, expect convective -- and possibly some severe -- potential
to increase by late this week (perhaps Friday Day 6 and then
Saturday Day 7 over the southern Plains region, and then possibly
day 8 near/east of the Mississippi River). At this time however,
model differences are large enough, and thus confidence in
predictability of the pattern low enough, such that no risk areas
will be highlighted at this time.
Click to expand...
 
Very concerning off tonite gfs.... nws Memphis getting Leary on this system already ...this run off the 0z gfs mite been the worst yet...low level shear off chart.surface winds backed ideal for a big tornado ? threat ark la Tex look be In the bullseye... but big part south midsouth need pay close attention to this
 
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