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March 2026 - Winter or Spring?

50 degrees colder tomorrow afternoon is going to be quite the shock, that snow changeover isn't impossible for the nw piedmont and roxboro area, rdu will be about +15 or more after today it'll be hard to mute that to any acceptable number the rest of the month (warmest March on record is still in play)
 
Another Stunning sunrise this morning in Youngsville!!
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A high of 90 is forecast for this area auded by a steady SW wind pinning the seabreeze and highs have been overperforming a couple of degrees, possibly related to the drought. So, the record high of 87 has a great chance to be broken. Meanwhile, lows in the 30s a couple of days next week will be possible along with highs only in the 50s, which is colder than recent 60s lows! That will make for quite a chilly St. Patrick’s Day parade. Looking forward to that and also a low 40s low well before that on Friday.
 
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If the front doesnt get way out in front tomorrow there is a respectable wind threat for the SE quarter/eastern half of NC tomorrow
 
GaWx said:
The GFS is back on its own with its silliness (this is Kuchera):

Now you see it (yesterday’s 6Z):
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Now you don’t (yesterday’s 12Z):
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Now you see it again (today’s 6z)…laughable!
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Noticed the Euro isn’t that far off for at least some flakes flying for some, too! Interesting! No doubt the GFS’ depiction of widespread accumulations is crazy, though!

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Getting any snow falling to stick would also be challenging after recent days.
 
superjames1992 said:
12z NAM. 👀🌭 Huge uptick over the 06z run.

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3k very similar. But temps look to stay above freezing and the changeover occurs in midday. Accumulations would be very hard to come by. For me, a win would be to just see some snow fall in the middle of the day.
 
superjames1992 said:
Noticed the Euro isn’t that far off for at least some flakes flying for some, too! Interesting! No doubt the GFS’ depiction of widespread accumulations is crazy, though!

View attachment 194891


Getting any snow falling to stick would also be challenging after recent days.
Click to expand...

The 6Z GFS has 3”+ at Roxboro during daylight hours 11AM-5PM while temps are never colder than 35!
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FallsLake said:
3k very similar. But temps look to stay above freezing and the changeover occurs in midday. Accumulations would be very hard to come by. For me, a win would be to just see some snow fall in the middle of the day.
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No doubt. As the sun angle / soil temp warmnista, that is going to be a huge issue, regardless of whether we get flakes to actually fall. If the snow was heavy enough (1-2”+ per hour), as some of the modeling depicts, it could be overcome, I suppose, but whatever did accumulate would no doubt melt very quickly after it’s over.

EDIT: To be clear, I’d be surprised if we saw any snowflakes, though, and even more surprised if there were accumulations. This is the time of year crazy things can happen, though!
 
12z Euro jackpots Roxboro. Curious if RAH puts a mention of flakes in their next AFD. Most modeling is showing mood flakes for at least their northern areas now. Would be pretty cool to see someone see snow fall tomorrow after making a run at 90 the day before!


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