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Severe March 14-17 Severe

I am by no means an expert like a lot of you, but you got to wonder if this system ends up overperforming tomorrow. I've seen it happen here in the past, especially as linear originated like this can slow down as they approach the apps and redevelop the east. Today is definitely not over by any means, and we could still see some stronger cells develop. But thankfully it was nowhere close as what could have been an historic outbreak tornadoes.
 
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Totally newbie question… should this be warned?


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For Birmingham - think it’ll be a question if anything can emerge from this mass of storms. Super messy right now. But still some time for something to develop.

I do think it’s clear we’ve avoided a worst case scenario of a horrible outbreak so far. Yes, there’s been some violent tornadoes. But compared to the ceiling we’ve been lucky

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Yes and yes. Dangerous day for sure, and still a lot of severe left, but certain fly in ointment that could be seen for a while. That area around Bassfield is truly cursed though. But SW flow setups can have a lot of drawbacks, junk, anvil blowout ahead of convection and strat regions going out ahead/over existing convection, etc
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This trend actually happened until go time, hence the HRRR runs really reflected it this AM with less free warm sector and more congestion
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This trend actually happened until go time, hence the HRRR runs really reflected it this AM with less free warm sector and more congestion
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FV3 actually performed really well except for its penchant to want to throw UH streaks everywhere. It showed a really messy look since late Thursday.

Now the MMFS or whatever that supercell printing model from hell is, needs to go back to the drawing board.

The second issue is while the UH maps from the HRRR look pretty, the model over prints UH streaks in convective masses/QLCS every time which causes them to look much worse.
 
I’m happy we dodged the bullet today for most of the state but this is a major bust for a day 2 high risk over a large area. You’d think people would be happy but they’ll be the complete opposite sadly.

We will get another high risk at some point this spring and it’ll likely get ignored by so many ignorant people because they’ll say “well it didn’t do anything last time” and then it’ll verify.
 
Parker said:
I’m happy we dodged the bullet today for most of the state but this is a major bust for a day 2 high risk over a large area. You’d think people would be happy but they’ll be the complete opposite sadly.

We will get another high risk at some point this spring and it’ll likely get ignored by so many ignorant people because they’ll say “well it didn’t do anything last time” and then it’ll verify.
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I agree with you sentiment but least not claim it though! 🔥🔥🔥
 
Parker said:
I’m happy we dodged the bullet today for most of the state but this is a major bust for a day 2 high risk over a large area. You’d think people would be happy but they’ll be the complete opposite sadly.

We will get another high risk at some point this spring and it’ll likely get ignored by so many ignorant people because they’ll say “well it didn’t do anything last time” and then it’ll verify.
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Yeah I guess this event will prove why high risks are so rare because it literally takes everything lining up just right

But it does suck how people will get more complacent now
 
Parker said:
I’m happy we dodged the bullet today for most of the state but this is a major bust for a day 2 high risk over a large area. You’d think people would be happy but they’ll be the complete opposite sadly.

We will get another high risk at some point this spring and it’ll likely get ignored by so many ignorant people because they’ll say “well it didn’t do anything last time” and then it’ll verify.
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absolutely correct. All this "technology / AI" and somehow it bust ( which I am happy dont get me wrong). Summer storms way worse than what was experienced here in north Alabama. Business / restaurants closed. Crying wolf, and people scoffing
 
Mesoscale Discussion 0215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Alabama into western Georgia and parts of the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 160002Z - 160200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Downstream watch issuance across western Georgia, eastern and southeast Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle is expected before 01 UTC as severe storms spread east.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show the most intense/organized convection across central AL extending southwestward into far southeast MS. Per recent MCD #213, the expectation is that this activity will continue to pose a severe wind and tornado risk heading into the late evening hours as it spreads east/northeast. Recent HRRR-based SSCRAM and WoFS guidance suggest that areas of eastern AL will see an uptick in the severe threat by 01-03 UTC with western GA and parts of the FL Panhandle between 02-05 UTC. These solutions also show a convective environment characterized by STP values between 2-4 will spread east with time and will continue to support the potential for long-track/significant tornadoes, as well as damaging/severe wind gusts (possibly as high as 60-70 mph). Watch issuance will likely be needed before 01 UTC to address this potential and will replace WW 46.

..Moore/Bunting.. 03/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...
 
I haven’t seen or heard of anything in regards to hail in Alabama. I thought they were talking of tennis ball size hail.
 
Confirmed tornado making a straight line on radar towards Oak Ridge National Laboratory/Y12 complex. That ain’t good.
 
Parker said:
I haven’t seen or heard of anything in regards to hail in Alabama. I thought they were talking of tennis ball size hail.
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I beg to differ Brad Travis said baseball size on air! and no that didn't happen either. Negative Nancy I guess. But dang these guys make a lot of money to be wrong. We all know that saying
 
Yeah they were wrong but to be fair most of the models they use were screaming about a historic threat all week

It's just like when all the models took Helene to Atlanta remember that 🤣

Oh and I think it was reinforced by how bad it was last night
 
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