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Severe March 14-17 Severe

Mahomeless said:
You can hear the verbiage out of ABC 33/40 where they are trying to justify their forecasts over the last few days by current conditions. I don't understand why stations do that. Just call it what it is, busted modeling.
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Because it isn’t a busted forecast, at least not yet. Sure, perhaps this won’t play out as extreme as modeled earlier but considering we still have all ingredients on the table I’d refrain from calling it busted
 
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JimRussell said:
So when are we going to call this for what it is, a massive bust? Hooray for that btw
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Obviously it’s all relative, but so far it’s been a miracle. Long ways to go but radar looks like a massive training rainstorm. I am not calling a bust because I know the power of juju. Stay prepped
 
445 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT.

* AT 445 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR GORDO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,
BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STONE WALL, WHITSON, BOLEY SPRINGS, BANKSTON, MOORES BRIDGE, BERRY,
WINDHAM SPRINGS, SAMANTHA, FAYETTE COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE, NEW
LEXINGTON, WILEY, ECHOLA, AND BINION CREEK LANDING.
 
Just saw that there's a decent amount of damage with the tornado that was near Gordo on Brett Adair's stream. Quite a few trees down.

The drone shots earlier were pretty good. May have actually been two tornadoes, I'm not sure.

Edit: nevermind, we may need to call this more on the line of extensive damage. Yikes. (drone shot put it into perspective)
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
The more SWlys aloft makes a sizable difference in storm mode and the ability for storms to produce tornadoes, especially Dixie. This is why flatter setups typically overproduce in setups (March 3 2019 is an example) Ideally need more westerlies aloft with more backed low levels/near sfc. Comparing this to 2011, this one is more SWly in the mid levels, which encourages more upscale growth and junk. But synoptically, it’s not very far off. But still, getting more dominant cellular mode is extremely difficult in highly forced regimes, and mesoscale features just right for a dominant supercellular mode is difficult as well (OFBs/boundaries/localized areas of more streamwise vorticity, etc). Definitely a high ceiling on this one thoughView attachment 171612View attachment 171613
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Arcc said:
Bingo. Unidirectional SW flow from 850mb to 500mb along with SW-SSW at 500mb will mean junk convection will be an issue along with impeded inflow. Normally in the past this definitely limits supercellur tornadoes except for the death alley around Yazoo City, MS. Doesn't mean the setup isn't dangerous, but definitely this is a historical Achilles heel if you want a large outbreak.(Non-QLCS)
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Yes and yes. Dangerous day for sure, and still a lot of severe left, but certain fly in ointment that could be seen for a while. That area around Bassfield is truly cursed though. But SW flow setups can have a lot of drawbacks, junk, anvil blowout ahead of convection and strat regions going out ahead/over existing convection, etc
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yes and yes. Dangerous day for sure, and still a lot of severe left, but certain fly in ointment that could be seen for a while. That area around Bassfield is truly cursed though. But SW flow setups can have a lot of drawbacks, junk, anvil blowout ahead of convection and strat regions going out ahead/over existing convection, etc
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Yeah I'm not totally surprised. There is such a thing as too much convection
 
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