Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

[Arcc]

Lexx is on standby with her 110 for the possible win lol.

Seriously though, I think the 120 will stay. The lowest pressure of 954 is consistent with a midrange cat 3. And the overall impacts are seeming like a cat 3 to me. And the NHC did a great job overall.

I don’t see much of anything underwhelming about this storm vs earlier predictions in terms of winds, surge, flooding rains, and especially tornadoes. This is a very high impact storm for FL imho. And this is by a good margin the strongest storm landfall in the area in over 100 years based on pressure and winds. Great job NHC!

I could honestly see them going with 110 or 115 during reanalysis looking at the last data collected from the hurricane hunters. I think it could be lower than that based on structure, but they won’t drop it much I don’t think

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Where the storm was 36 hours ago is irrelevant as never was it expected by the NHC to come in anywhere close to that. For some reason, you’re comparing it to something that was never going to happen.

Great points Larry and I get it but in today’s era of social media the only reason this storm got the attention it did as soon as it did is because of where it was at 36 hours ago. A Cat 5, trending on Twitter as a “Cat 6!”, barreling towards Florida. I still had friends and family on social media reposting the “Cat 5” nonsense up until this afternoon. Milton set a certain expectation a few days ago. It just did. It was one of the nastiest gulf fish hurricanes of all time. I think it’s definitely worth noting that a bullet was dodged here and watching satellite of Milton over the last 3-4 days I think that’s obvious. In the end, this ain’t the big bad wolf it probably should have been. Helene is going to take the crown this year and by a long shot.

Something that is certainly worth noting is the tornado outbreak we saw in Florida today. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything quite like that. A frightening and memorable weather day for Floridians no doubt about it but in the end this was still an ugly hurricane at landfall.

 

[GaWx]

I see the winds are quite strong on the NE Florida coast. What are you expecting out your way later on as the storm exits the coast?

Not that much up this far. Probably some gusts tomorrow in the 30s but not even close to what we had from Helene. Just a normal windy day. Should mean outages are limited (fingers crossed lol). We’re getting very light rain and I don’t expect more than very light through tomorrow. We may even be dry most of the time. We’re being helped a lot by Milton moving E after coming off FL instead of NE.

 

[GaWx]

Great points Larry and I get it but in today’s era of social media the only reason this storm got the attention it did as soon as it did is because of where it was at 36 hours ago. A Cat 5, trending on Twitter as a “Cat 6!”, barreling towards Florida. I still had friends and family on social media reposting the “Cat 5” nonsense up until this afternoon. Milton set a certain expectation a few days ago. It just did. It was one of the nastiest gulf fish hurricanes of all time. I think it’s definitely worth noting that a bullet was dodged here and watching satellite of Milton over the last 3-4 days I think that’s obvious. In the end, this ain’t the big bad wolf it probably should have been. Helene is going to take the crown this year and by a long shot.

Something that is certainly worth noting is the tornado outbreak we saw in Florida today. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything quite like that. A frightening and memorable weather day for Floridians no doubt about it but in the end this was still an ugly hurricane at landfall.

There are a lot of ignorant people on social media spreading misinfo/false expectations. But knowledgeable folks like us knew better. I always thought it was going to weaken substantially. Look no further than my 125/953 mb contest prediction! The only bullet that was dodged imho was it not landfalling at or N of TB leading to a potentially catastrophic surge there.

Did you hear that the FL tornado outbreak was the largest for any day in FL history and 2nd biggest for any state on record?

“Ugly” IR satellite pics can be very deceiving. The “ground” truth said otherwise, tornadoes and the rest.

*Corrected

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

There are a lot of ignorant people on social media spreading misinfo/false expectations. But knowledgeable folks like us knew better. I always thought it was going to weaken substantially. Look no further than my 120/953 mb contest prediction! The only bullet that was dodged imho was it not landfalling at or N of TB leading to a potentially catastrophic surge there.

Did you hear that the FL tornado outbreak was the largest for any day in FL history and 2nd biggest for any state on record?

“Ugly” IR satellite pics can be very deceiving. The “ground” truth said otherwise, tornadoes and the rest.

The southern part of Milton was all but gone at landfall which I guess is why they lowered all of their surge forecasts I’m just not sure the ingredients were there at landfall to create a biblical surge into Tampa bay even if it went north.

Either way, Florida owning the second biggest tornado outbreak on record is an insane stat. That’s actually hard to believe. Good info as always Larry.

 

[GaWx]

Great points Larry and I get it but in today’s era of social media the only reason this storm got the attention it did as soon as it did is because of where it was at 36 hours ago. A Cat 5, trending on Twitter as a “Cat 6!”, barreling towards Florida. I still had friends and family on social media reposting the “Cat 5” nonsense up until this afternoon. Milton set a certain expectation a few days ago. It just did. It was one of the nastiest gulf fish hurricanes of all time. I think it’s definitely worth noting that a bullet was dodged here and watching satellite of Milton over the last 3-4 days I think that’s obvious. In the end, this ain’t the big bad wolf it probably should have been. Helene is going to take the crown this year and by a long shot.

Something that is certainly worth noting is the tornado outbreak we saw in Florida today. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything quite like that. A frightening and memorable weather day for Floridians no doubt about it but in the end this was still an ugly hurricane at landfall.

I agree that Helene very likely gets the crown, especially due to the huge impact on the well inland areas not normally heavily affected. But Helene isn’t over yet, especially due to the ongoing C FL flash flood emergency. Orlando to Daytona and nearby areas still have a ways to go. And the backside has had the highest winds in many cases!

Check this amazing stat: St Petersburg got over 18” of rain yesterday!! How big is that? Since records started in 1916, the prior record high for any one day was 9.61” on 9/5/1933 (from storm #11 that hit SE FL as a MH and then moved just NW of Tampa). They got 7.76” on 6/23/1945 from a H that had a landfall 100 miles to the N. They received 7.42” on 9/4/1935 from the Labor Day Hurricane moving N just offshore. None of these are even close to what Milton gave them! And steady rain is still falling there! Rivers may not all crest for a couple of days.

St. Petersburg FL Most Rain in a Day for Each Year - Current Results

The highest amount of rain to fall in a single day for each year in St. Petersburg.

www.currentresults.com