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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

GaWx said:
Maria is a bit further west and Jose a bit further NE at hour 96 of the 12Z GFS vs the 102 of the 6Z GFS. So, I'm guessing Maria will at least be closer to the east coast of the US than it was on the 6Z run.
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Yeah, if we have Jose more east, the chances of Maria hitting the US go up, as does a weaker to nonexistent Jose.
gfs_z500a_watl_18.png
 
metwannabe said:
So just went to this site, clicked on Dominica and read some comments.... wow what a dire situation, gonna be tragic I'm afraid
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Yes especially if this thing stays in an intensification mode as it approaches. The Islands currently in the cross-hairs were spared the worst from Irma but any ticks north with this thing and the islands most affected by Irma start to come into play. They are in an extremely fragile state and I would hate to think if they even got Cat 1 or 2 winds up there. I was emailing with one of the posters from Anguilla during Irma who had a weather station and his last report was 974 mb's before the internet went down. 3 days later he emailed that all he had left was 4 walls, no roof and, jokingly, PTSD. He went through Luis and Marilyn and said Irma was the worst.
 
Looks like Jose starting to move east on the GFS, gotta a feeling this is gonna send Maria back to the EC....
edit: yep ridge already starting to fill in between the two leaving no escape route
 
GaWx said:
A somewhat ominous change on the 12Z GFS vs earlier runs for the US east coast. Not good if you don't want a hit there but it is still very early.
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Definitely not a good thing. It may be time to build a big fan on the east coast to blow Maria away LOL. Seeing a run west is bad. Let's watch the trends to see if it comes more into the CMC's camp.
 
It isn't so much what the 12Z GFS will or won't do on the east coast to me that is that important. It is the sig shift westward of Maria that is most sig to me.
 
Brent said:
meanwhile the CMC and UKMET went east :rolleyes:

Jose is making this so much worse
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CMC does it's own loop with Maria off the SE coast, just another weird run altogether... got to think models will start to get a better handle on Jose today or tomorrow which should help bring some consistency to Maria's track?? Hopefully...
 
GaWx said:
It isn't so much what the 12Z GFS will or won't do on the east coast to me that is that important. It is the sig shift westward of Maria that is most sig to me.
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That's a great point IF this is a trend then westward corrections are probably not over....
 
GaWx said:
It isn't so much what the 12Z GFS will or won't do on the east coast to me that is that important. It is the sig shift westward of Maria that is most sig to me.
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agreed, why do I have this feeling we'll see a bunch of westward shifts?

Personally I think Jose is on his way out, conditions only get more hostile the further north he gets
 
Ominous wording in Hurricane Warning for St Croix by the NWS San Juan, PR;

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning means Hurricane wind conditions are expected
somewhere within this area and within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- St Croix

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 3 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 100-120 mph with gusts to 170 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Tuesday morning
until Wednesday evening
- Window for Hurricane force winds: Tuesday evening until
Wednesday morning

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
- Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Widespread power outages with some areas experiencing
long-term outages
- Many bridges and access routes connecting barrier islands
impassable
- Structural category to sturdy buildings with some having
complete wall and roof failures
- Complete destruction of mobile homes
- Numerous roads impassable from large debris

* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 6-9 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: early Tuesday evening until early
Thursday morning

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
major storm surge flooding of greater than 6 feet above
ground.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
extensive storm surge flooding impacts. Evacuation efforts
should now be brought to completion. Evacuations must be
complete before driving conditions become unsafe.
- Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed
evacuation orders may result in serious injury, significant
loss of life, or human suffering. Leave if evacuation
orders are given for your area. Consider voluntary
evacuation if recommended. Poor decisions may result in
being cut off or needlessly risk lives.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by
floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an
extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary
roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems
and barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and
stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 12-18 inches, with
locally higher amounts

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat of
extreme flooding where peak rainfall totals vastly exceed
amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation.
Rescues and emergency evacuations are very likely.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
devastating to catastrophic flooding rain impacts.
- Life-threatening flooding is possible. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury, significant loss of
life, or human suffering. If flood related watches and
warnings are issued, heed recommended actions. Poor
decisions may result in being cut off or needlessly risk
lives. If vulnerable, relocate to safe shelter on higher
ground before flood waters arrive.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become raging
rivers. In mountain areas, deadly runoff may rage down
valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and
mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is favorable for tornadoes

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- When implementing emergency plans, include should include a
reasonable threat for scattered tornadoes.
- To be safe, earnestly prepare for the potential of
significant tornado impacts.
- Listen for tornado watches and warnings. Be ready to
shelter quickly if a tornado approaches.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
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metwannabe said:
Well after about 24 hours worth of hurricane conditions along the south coast of NC and then GFS goes ots without actually making landfall but as Larry pointed out the shift west is concerning not the specifics
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Yep. I don't like the shift west. It should concern us all.


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So yes the Ukie was east but still has Jose as a formidable system so not sure how much I buy that....
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I can only imagine how people in the islands feel. They already just about lost everything during Irma. I would guess theres not much left to be destroyed. Serious humanitarian crisis unfolding in carribean with all of the devestation.
 
Not liking the West shift on the GFS. Have to see what the others do now. All depends on Jose, though. Hopefully, he'll hang around long enough to kick Maria to the curb and she'll go out to sea.
 
12Z GEFS looks consistent with the more ominous 12Z GFS shift so far.
 
Brent said:
agreed, why do I have this feeling we'll see a bunch of westward shifts?

Personally I think Jose is on his way out, conditions only get more hostile the further north he gets
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Just like Irma! :(
 
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