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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

00z gfs this would be welcomed.
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Arcc said:
I'm not even sure Maria gets OTS anyways. You would think when or if Jose gets away, the Ridge would still build overtop in its place.
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that's where I'm having a problem too, literally the only way the US avoids Maria is Jose HAS to hang around and force it OTS

If Jose is gone the US will be hit
 
She's gonna be way east this run. Even if it it's get blocked back to the west it should be safely North of the MA region this run
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I dont buy the Jose loop, i think in time he will quickly exit
 
I don't even know why we look at GFS . 6z will be a Cuba landfall
 
Brent said:
the GFS was also so terrible with Irma(remember it was going OTS too :p)
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People are quick to give reasons why the GFS is " wrong "

There are many OTS eps and GEFS members hell even many OTS Canadian ensemble members

It's almost as if they are dismissed because people want a us hit


For the record I'm not saying the gfs is right . Just saying this solution can't be dismissed
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Storm5 said:
People are quick to give reasons why the GFS is " wrong "

There are many OTS eps and GEFS members hell even many OTS Canadian ensemble members

It's almost as if they are dismissed because people want a us hit

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I say we skip model watching and just watch radar, to see where she goes lol.
 
Brent said:
yes but the issue is if Jose doesn't hang around a big ridge likely develops which basically forces it into the US

We're relying on a tropical system to survive in 70 degree water temps
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Not arguing against that. Just saying ,the 00z gfs and 12z Euro are similar and there is support with the ensembles for an OTS solution

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The GFS ensemble suite has been trending stronger w/ the ridge east of Jose ~ 120-132 hr the past few days and therefore gives less confidence in a quick OTS solution and gives legitimacy to Jose getting stuck over the western Atlantic. It's entirely possible this one of those very strange cases where a subtropical ridge that trends stronger inadvertently lowers the chances of a US impact (at least from Maria)...
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Nothing should be looked at for forecast/impact locations except the ensemble suites in my opinion. I mean, look at it sure, but grain of salt! We did this with Irma many days out and it felt like we tracked her for a month. Ultimately it was further South and West in the 3 day - or so range.
 
Eric, that GEFS chart you posted, is that considered an ULL on there over the SE USA (again?) haven't looked at that chart before.
 
Shawn said:
Eric, that GEFS chart you posted, is that considered an ULL on there over the SE USA (again?) haven't looked at that chart before.
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This chart shows the 48 hour 500mb geopotential height trend in the GFS ensemble (average tendency over the past 8 runs). I would definitely consider that an ULL over the southeast, and a stronger one at that over the FL peninsula. We also have to be weary about Jose saving us because even if he lingers in the western Atlantic, there's no guarantee Maria goes OTS. It's actually possible if Maria gets too close to this cut off upper trough, its influence on the steering flow may become comparable to Jose and snatch it NWward into the SE US anyway in spite of Jose hanging around off the US east coast.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This chart shows the 48 hour 500mb geopotential height trend in the GFS ensemble (average tendency over the past 8 runs). I would definitely consider that an ULL over the southeast, and a stronger one at that over the FL peninsula. We also have to be weary about Jose saving us because even if he lingers in the western Atlantic, there's no guarantee Maria goes OTS. It's actually possible if Maria gets too close to this cut off upper trough, its influence on the steering flow may become comparable to Jose and snatch it NWward into the SE US anyway in spite of Jose hanging around off the US east coast.
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Hate to say it, but those that spoke about "Hugo" before.. that looks much more like it if that is the case. Oh man, I'm ready for Winter! Plus that is a GEFS "tendency?" kind of like a mean? If so that is a big signal for an ULL of significance.
 
stormcentral said:
And now we have a blob...lol
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Hmm, that actually looks like the beginnings legitimate central dense overcast (CDO) because Maria's inner core is probably going to be pretty small when it initially intensifies into a hurricane. Based on Dvorak classifications, if it is indeed a CDO, Maria may be closer to 50-55 KTS atm
 
Shawn said:
Hate to say it, but those that spoke about "Hugo" before.. that looks much more like it if that is the case. Oh man, I'm ready for Winter! Plus that is a GEFS "tendency?" kind of like a mean? If so that is a big signal for an ULL of significance.
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Yeah it's essentially a tendency averaged over runs for the past 2 days that is meant to filter out run-run noise and/or spurious trends that can often appear for 1-2 model cycles.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Hmm, that actually looks like the beginnings legitimate central dense overcast (CDO) because Maria's inner core is probably going to be pretty small when it initially intensifies into a hurricane. Based on Dvorak classifications, if it is indeed a CDO, Maria may be closer to 50-55 KTS atm
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Plus, if this is in fact a primitive CDO and it persists/grows, this may be a big red flag of forthcoming rapid intensification given how small Maria's core is atm.
 
For those using the Maria website I threw together, the funny image of the Maria tennis player will go away eventually. Our content delivery network caches the style file for a period of time before it refreshes it.
 
Storm5 said:
People are quick to give reasons why the GFS is " wrong "

There are many OTS eps and GEFS members hell even many OTS Canadian ensemble members

It's almost as if they are dismissed because people want a us hit


For the record I'm not saying the gfs is right . Just saying this solution can't be dismissed
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This. And I've also seen this at Storm2K.
 
It's rarely a good thing to see the usually very aggressive HWRF trend stronger inside 48-72 HR like it's doing this run w/ Maria. This storm could completely wipe out whatever was left of these islands after Irma
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Speaking of Storm2K, someone wondered about this and I wonder, too. Does it really matter that much if the GFS has Jose too strong as regards still allowing for a weakness capable of recurving Maria? Isn't the more important factor Jose lingering as opposed to being strong?
 
GaWx said:
Speaking of Storm2K, someone wondered about this and I wonder, too. Does it really matter if the GFS has Jose too strong as regards still allowing for a weakness capable of recurving Maria?
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The strength could certainly play a role, but I think the synoptic scale steering flow and size of the wind field (which is somewhat related to the strength of the TC and breadth of the diabatic PV tower (which could be disrupted or become smeared w/ upper level PV extrusion from the stratosphere due to extratropical transition) may matter more here.
 
GaWx said:
Speaking of Storm2K, someone wondered about this and I wonder, too. Does it really matter that much if the GFS has Jose too strong as regards still allowing for a weakness capable of recurving Maria? Isn't the more important factor Jose lingering as opposed to being strong?
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Well with what Eric has posted with the GEFS tendency map and the weakness (stronger signal of an ULL) over the Southeast, stronger, or weaker Jose still in the area still might lose the battle to the ULL influence... depending on how everything else is setup around Jose and the East coast per 500mb.
 
Shawn said:
Well with what Eric has posted with the GEFS tendency map and the weakness (stronger signal of an ULL) over the Southeast, stronger, or weaker Jose still in the area still might lose the battle to the ULL influence... depending on how everything else is setup around Jose and the East coast per 500mb.
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Not only that but we have to deal w/ possible land interaction w/ Hispaniola and that's almost always a huge wildcard in track and steering forecasts
 
Shawn said:
Well with what Eric has posted with the GEFS tendency map and the weakness (stronger signal of an ULL) over the Southeast, stronger, or weaker Jose still in the area still might lose the battle to the ULL influence... depending on how everything else is setup around Jose and the East coast per 500mb.
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This is what I just said over there about my feelings about the protection for the SE US a lingering Jose would give even if he is weak:

That is pretty much my thinking. To back this up, I have found exactly ZERO hurricanes since 1851 (yes, I looked at every year today) which came W, WNW, NW, or NNW into the SE US with a TS+ lingering to the north or NE near or within about 500 miles of the east coast of the US. So, I just don't see a hurricane coming into the SE US with another TC above it.

Even if an upper low over the SE somehow captures Maria (so highly unlikely imo with Jose lingering based on history at the very least), wouldn't it likely weaken significantly from a tropical perspective and/or gain extratropical characteristics?
 
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Jose is way weaker and 500 miles west of its 12Z Euro position at hour 168 of the 0Z Euro. What will Maria do now? She's moving very slowly NW in the Bahamas.
 
This Euro run is so much different everything is different

Maria is much further west too at 168
 
Brent said:
This Euro run is so much different everything is different
Maria is much further west too at 168
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At hour 192, Jose is practically nonexistent though a slight upper weakness has been left behind. She's now moving NNW.
 
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