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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Think the forecast on this thing is going to be as problematic as it was with Irma when it was west of the islands but for completely different reasons. Weaker steering ridge and a much weaker storm atm for one. A much stronger ULL off to it's west (don't discount the affect of this on its future track). 5 day forecast temps and winds in the western 3rd of the conus are much higher and southerly respectively implying a deeper trof in the west and stronger ridging east down the road. With a TUTT dropping to the NE and Lee forecast to get sheared to death their could be ridging building back in either on top or NE of this thing. Right now I'm on the very southern end of the models (and they are struggling as this thing didn't have any kind of a center for them to latch onto until this evening) which isn't good for the storm as that would run it right into the the high mountain shredder of southern Hispaniola. My ears would be perked right now if I was in Jamaica. Just my opinion :weenie:
 
Jackstraw said:
Think the forecast on this thing is going to be as problematic as it was with Irma when it was west of the islands but for completely different reasons. Weaker steering ridge and a much weaker storm atm for one. A much stronger ULL off to it's west (don't discount the affect of this on its future track). 5 day forecast temps and winds in the western 3rd of the conus are much higher and southerly respectively implying a deeper trof in the west and stronger ridging east down the road. With a TUTT dropping to the NE and Lee forecast to get sheared to death their could be ridging building back in either on top or NE of this thing. Right now I'm on the very southern end of the models (and they are struggling as this thing didn't have any kind of a center for them to latch onto until this evening) which isn't good for the storm as that would run it right into the the high mountain shredder of southern Hispaniola. My ears would be perked right now if I was in Jamaica. Just my opinion :weenie:
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The track will be a big pain until Jose decides what he wants to do. I feel that all of the Antilles and the US coastlines should be watching this until we get a better idea of what's going on. As for Jamaica, I think that they will be fine. There is no way from what I can see that Maria can stay in the Caribbean that long. If she did by an off chance, then someone on the Gulf coast is in deep trouble. That area is a hotbed and if you get a cat 4 in there, we will see the worst storm ever I feel. Let's just hope we can go the season without getting that kind of boost to a storm again.
 
Hours 24-126 ON HWRF 18Z run
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ForsythSnow said:
The track will be a big pain until Jose decides what he wants to do. I feel that all of the Antilles and the US coastlines should be watching this until we get a better idea of what's going on. As for Jamaica, I think that they will be fine. There is no way from what I can see that Maria can stay in the Caribbean that long. If she did by an off chance, then someone on the Gulf coast is in deep trouble. That area is a hotbed and if you get a cat 4 in there, we will see the worst storm ever I feel. Let's just hope we can go the season without getting that kind of boost to a storm again.
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Great points and Lord knows i don't want to see anything get into the gulf, especially coming in through the NW carrib. We are getting ready to enter the peak of Carib., Campeche, S. GOM born storms here in a few weeks so hopefully the unusually strong eastern trof we've had this summer can re-establish and persist. Right now there seems to be a pattern change in the short term with stronger trofs starting to dip into the western US and stronger ridging east. That is the biggest concern down the road. The pattern forming over the conus is very alarming if this thing makes it through the islands.
No doubt the movement of Jose will give us insights as to where this thing could go but not because of Jose, it will let us see how the ridging over the Atlantic that is steering Jose begins to develop. Right now Maria's actual center could form anywhere within a 75 mile radius of the Sat fix estimates. Any formation south of the est. center is going to impart a farther west track.
The strong easterlies moving it along, it's in it's formative stages, the ULL moving west in tandem, all lend me to lean to a more western track than forecast atm. Yes, Jamaica may be a little to far west but Florida was too far west for Irma beyond 7 days also ;)
I'm not a model guy beyond 72 hours, and especially in areas that humans are giving the models more input than actual measurements. I'm a looper and I just try to give the analog version from what I see and from my experience. I appreciate everyone's insight here and learn day to day from it. Thank you! :D
 
Jackstraw said:
Great points and Lord knows i don't want to see anything get into the gulf, especially coming in through the NW carrib. We are getting ready to enter the peak of Carib., Campeche, S. GOM born storms here in a few weeks so hopefully the unusually strong eastern trof we've had this summer can re-establish and persist. Right now there seems to be a pattern change in the short term with stronger trofs starting to dip into the western US and stronger ridging east. That is the biggest concern down the road. The pattern forming over the conus is very alarming if this thing makes it through the islands.
No doubt the movement of Jose will give us insights as to where this thing could go but not because of Jose, it will let us see how the ridging over the Atlantic that is steering Jose begins to develop. Right now Maria's actual center could form anywhere within a 75 mile radius of the Sat fix estimates. Any formation south of the est. center is going to impart a farther west track.
The strong easterlies moving it along, it's in it's formative stages, the ULL moving west in tandem, all lend me to lean to a more western track than forecast atm. Yes, Jamaica may be a little to far west but Florida was too far west for Irma beyond 7 days also ;)
I'm not a model guy beyond 72 hours, and especially in areas that humans are giving the models more input than actual measurements. I'm a looper and I just try to give the analog version from what I see and from my experience. I appreciate everyone's insight here and learn day to day from it. Thank you! :D
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Thank you! :cool:
Glad you're here, Man! Learned a lot from you over the years and it's not an empty cup! Ripple ...
 
Worth mentioning, Maria is currently experiencing about 10-15 knots of southerly, divergent wind shear from a tropical upper tropospheric trough to east its over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the GFS forecasts this to shear to abate in about 24 hours as Maria throws enough heat at the TUTT to break off the southern lobe from the larger from the broader trough axis. This shear is likely not hurting the storm atm & is probably helping it if anything, by allowing Maria to establish a poleward outflow channel into the subtropical jet core to its northeast and encouraging anticyclonic curvature to its diabatically-induced upper level anticyclone. This latter physical mechanism is linked to negative planetary vorticity advection as the upper level air mass encapsulating Maria moves northward around the TUTT axis, gains latitude and therefore planetary vorticity. This forces a corresponding decrease in relative vorticity (anticyclonic vorticity tendency) in the upper levels as is dictated by the conservation of absolute vorticity, thereby potentially augmenting Maria's upper level anticyclone. This partially explain s(given all else is equal) why even moderate divergent southerly shear is more conducive to tropical cyclongenesis and intensification as compared to northerly shear...
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However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility,
and it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than
currently forecast.

yikes, they already have a strong 3 forecast!!
 
Snowfan said:
Imagine if she pulls a Irma.:eek:
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I've been having Irma flashbacks all day tbh

There are obvious differences in some things but the idea of blowing up rapidly and the general track through 5 days is eerily similar

and Irma largely spared Puerto Rico, this could be a landfall at this rate.
 
Snowfan said:
Imagine if she pulls a Irma.:eek:
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Let's put it in perspective.
Irma wasn't supposed to pull an Irma.
Maria is days out.
Models will change drastically.
Every 6 hours.
There is a lot up stream and up north that has to play out yet.
Enjoy watching.
Until 72 hours out ... :rolleyes:
But ... as Brent says - "eerily similar" ... :confused:
 
yeah the NHC never had a 5 forecast for Irma til she was one... and she went to the upper limits of Atlantic hurricanes on record

the NHC is notoriously conservative on intensity so to see that mentioned is pretty disturbing
 
Here's an interesting statistic... Approximately 55-60% of all major hurricanes that pass through Hebert Box #1 just east of Puerto Rico end up hitting the United States, that's about one and half-twice the climatological mean for all tropical cyclones in this area, which essentially means that because Maria is expected to be a major hurricane in this area, its odds of hitting the US nearly double...
Historically, the most favored tracks for major hurricanes that pass through Hebert Box #1 are either a hit on the southeastern US coastline (eastern FL, GA, SC, & NC) or a last minute recurvature out to sea in the western Atlantic...
It's actually amazing how well the spread and congregation in tracks from the EPS match up w/ climatology for Hebert Box #1 majors. The one drunk EPS member in the south-central Gulf even manages to catch Inez's (1966) track. Pretty cool...

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Webberweather53 said:
Here's an interesting statistic... Approximately 55-60% of all major hurricanes that pass through Hebert Box #1 just east of Puerto Rico end up hitting the United States, that's about one and half-twice the climatological mean for all tropical cyclones in this area, which essentially means that because Maria is expected to be a major hurricane in this area, its odds of hitting the US nearly double...
Historically, the most favored tracks for major hurricanes that pass through Hebert Box #1 are either a hit on the southeastern US coastline (eastern FL, GA, SC, & NC) or a last minute recurvature out to sea in the western Atlantic...
It's actually amazing how well the spread and congregation in tracks from the EPS match up w/ climatology for Hebert Box #1 majors. The one drunk EPS member in the south-central Gulf even manages to catch Inez's (1966) track. Pretty cool...

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------ Webb - Can we get some sleep? LOL
Great post!
Phil
 
pcbjr said:
------ Webb - Can we get some sleep? LOL
Great post!
Phil
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Haha thanks! yeah it would probably take a climatologically unusual track from Jose (veer S-SWward in the northwest Atlantic underneath a blocking ridge over Atlantic Canada) to try and keep Maria comfortably away from the US
 
Storm5 said:
We had someone this week say they would take the ukmet and NAM over all other models ....its the king for a reason #euroforlife #asskicking
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Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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Yep, the UKMET got burned at day 5 because of a succession of several bad forecasts that took Jose into Florida, if that didn't happen the UKMET would probably be still beating or be in very close quarters w/ the ECMWF
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's an interesting statistic... Approximately 55-60% of all major hurricanes that pass through Hebert Box #1 just east of Puerto Rico end up hitting the United States, that's about one and half-twice the climatological mean for all tropical cyclones in this area, which essentially means that because Maria is expected to be a major hurricane in this area, its odds of hitting the US nearly double...
Historically, the most favored tracks for major hurricanes that pass through Hebert Box #1 are either a hit on the southeastern US coastline (eastern FL, GA, SC, & NC) or a last minute recurvature out to sea in the western Atlantic...
It's actually amazing how well the spread and congregation in tracks from the EPS match up w/ climatology for Hebert Box #1 majors. The one drunk EPS member in the south-central Gulf even manages to catch Inez's (1966) track. Pretty cool...
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Do you think, as you pointed out, that because they are major, the influence of strong hurricanes on the steering ridge would have anything to do with it?
 
Jackstraw said:
Do you think, as you pointed out, that because they are major, the influence of strong hurricanes on the steering ridge would have anything to do with it?
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While that's definitely a legitimate rationale, it may be the other way around more so in that strong hurricanes (which presumably developed for the most part in the eastern MDR and were strong early) that were pushed this far west already were under the influence of a stronger than normal AB high to reach this point... Therefore the larger proportion of landfalls for stronger hurricanes vs all TCs in hebert box #1 may be an indicator rather than a forcing onto the large-scale steering pattern.
 
The GFS is trending southwestward w/ Jose after he makes his closest approach to southern New England in the middle portions of this week. Let's hope this trend continues & Jose provides enough of a weakness in the AB high to snatch Maria OTS...
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Webberweather53 said:
While that's definitely a legitimate rationale, it may be the other way around more so in that strong hurricanes (which presumably developed for the most part in the eastern MDR and were strong early) that were pushed this far west already were under the influence of a stronger than normal AB high to reach this point... Therefore the larger proportion of landfalls for stronger hurricanes vs all TCs in hebert box #1 may be an indicator rather than a forcing onto the large-scale steering pattern.
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That was going to be the second part of my question damn it lol. :p
 
I think Jose is way too strong on the GFS honestly, the water is cold up there, and it's not even that strong now

Not sure how much I buy him causing Maria to recurve, most of the Euro ensembles didn't support it either

But its possible of course I just dunno about the GFS portrayal of it lol
 
Brent said:
I think Jose is way too strong on the GFS honestly, the water is cold up there

Not sure how much I buy him causing Maria to recurve, most of the Euro ensembles didn't support it either

But its possible of course I just dunno about the GFS portrayal of it lol
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You would think outflow from Maria would shred it.
 
Arcc said:
The door is wide open this run.
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Even if the door is wide open, and Maria starts going OTS, we have to be real careful from the Carolinas on northward as Jose could get uncomfortably close to the coast if the binary interaction between it and Maria proceeds
 
Webberweather53 said:
While that's definitely a legitimate rationale, it may be the other way around more so in that strong hurricanes (which presumably developed for the most part in the eastern MDR and were strong early) that were pushed this far west already were under the influence of a stronger than normal AB high to reach this point... Therefore the larger proportion of landfalls for stronger hurricanes vs all TCs in hebert box #1 may be an indicator rather than a forcing onto the large-scale steering pattern.
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Or to finish my second question, storms that are under the influence of weaker steering ridges or ridge axis if they undergo intensification and become a major then the possibility of those storms enhancing the ridge could come more into play. It would be interesting to see if there were climo similarities in the majors that went through Herbert #1, especially over the Atlantic.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even if the door is wide open, and Maria starts going OTS, we have to be real careful from the Carolinas on northward as Jose could get uncomfortably close to the coast if the binary interaction between it and Maria proceeds
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Yeah, I'm trying to figure out where Jose would go with that block over top. This is a messed up situation.
 
Good Lord, someone give Jose a GPS to find his way home.. SMH
 
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