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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

GaWx said:
I looked back to 1851 and couldn't find even one H that moved into the SE US from the SE or E with a TS+ lingering not too far to the north like Jose has done on 2 of the last 3 Euros. Of course, that makes sense from a met angle as a weakness not too far to the north will not allow for W to NW steering to bring a TC W to NW into the SE. So, IF Jose lingers like those 2 Euros show, I'd agree with the Euro idea of protecting the SE.
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Yeah at least protecting us from Maria but even if Jose is there and allows Maria to pass out to see there's still an outside risk to the upper southeast (Carolinas) & points northward from Jose because the binary interaction with Maria would actually force Jose southwestward
 
Already looks to be on the way to Hurricane Maria
20170916.1516.gcomw1.x.colorpct_89h_89v_1deg.96_L.jpg
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has only ~10 of 50 members having Jose linger. That's our best hope for protection. Otherwise, there are lots of hits from S FL to NC and even 2 that go way out into the GOM.
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Well, the higher resolution operational is hopefully better in this scenario.. since the control run is at a lower resolution the members come off of.
 
Oh boy, up to 50 mph now and it looks like a major is now in the forecast.

INIT 16/2100Z 12.3N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 13.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 13.9N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 14.6N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 15.2N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 16.5N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 17.9N 65.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 19.5N 68.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
 
Wow that's a bullish forecast but makes sense

Hurricane tomorrow and major hurricane for Puerto Rico mid week

:weenie::weenie::weenie:
 
Could Maria become large like Irma? Seem like this storm is fairly growing large.
 
Here we go again. Don't like the track of this one. NC has been lucky so far. That luck might be running out.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Here we go again. Don't like the track of this one. NC has been lucky so far. That luck might be running out.
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This one has OBX written all over it depending on what Jose does up there.
 
Man the GFS just missed Hispaniola. That would no doubt disturb the system . Will be enteresting to watch and see how that plays out
 
Gfs has been trending away from hispanola today the euro and ukmet are already almost north
 
GaWx said:
So, the last 3 GFS runs have 932, 937, & 927 mb just off the SE coast (N FL to NC) even after sig interaction with Hisp. and with pretty high background press to the N. The 6 strongest on record that I found there with similar tracks & which all had limited or no Hisp. interaction were these:

1898: 938 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1898/7/track.gif

1954 (Hazel): 938 mb https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel

1985 (Gloria): 942 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/GLORIA/track.gif

1989 (Hugo): 934 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1989/HUGO/track.gif

1999 (Floyd): 935 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1999/FLOYD/track.gif

2016 (Matthew): 938 mb http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/MATTHEW/track.gif

Even Andrew with near perfect conditions/no Hisp well south of these only got down to 922 mb. More realistically based on analogs IF this has Hisp interaction would be in the 950s at the lowest imo. Now if Hisp interaction turns out minimal, then I could see 930s just off of N FL to NC and 920s off of S FL.
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What did all 6 of the above post season peak very strong Hs have in common? Cold ENSO (mainly weak): 3 cold neut, 2 weak Nina, and 1 mod Nina.

To add post peak very strong (cat 4) S FL hits from the E or SE:
1926 #7 930 mb: cold neut http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1926/7/track.gif
1928 #4: 929 mb cold neut http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1928/4/track.gif
1945 #9: 949 mb cold neut http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1945/9/track.gif
1947 #4: 943 mb cold neut http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1947/4/track.gif
1950 King 955 mb weak Nina http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1950/KING/track.gif

Also:
Gracie of 1959 950 mb: cold neut http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1959/GRACIE/track.gif

So, all 6 of these additional ones were during weak cold ENSO. We're now in weak cold ENSO.

So, 11 of the 12 were during weak cold ENSO & the other was mod Nino.
 
Storm5 said:
Just saw the eps . You could literally described any solution you could think of and the eps has it
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6-12" from GSP to RAH on there
 
metwannabe said:
Many ots on the 18z gefs...
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Although an east coast hit is quite possible, if not likely assuming Jose doesn't linger, climo does say that an ots track in just over a week would be more likely than it was for the two week earlier Irma's time on a strictly climo/history basis all other things being equal. So, I'm not dismissing this as unrealistic. But, that's just climo and the forecast for strong NE US centered ridging in about a week is not your average late Sep NE US setup and would thus limit the chance for a safe recurve to well below the average chance for late September again assuming Jose isn't then lingering. I want to first see if there really is going to be strong NE US ridging then setting up and also holding for a few days (this is looking likely based on model consensus) without Jose nearby (this is the iffy part) before getting all that worried. It currently being weak cold ENSO is somewhat of a negative for recurvature possibilities vs all ENSO combined for late September.
 
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