Tropical Major Hurricane Maria
- Thread starter Webberweather53
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The HWRF vs the HMON as it always starts out. The HMON has a weak low entering the Caribbean while the HWRF gives a blow to the Lesser Antilles and the US Virgin Islands as a cat 4. Too early really for these models, but just interesting to note.
The EPS is just an absolute mess... Not only do we have to keep tabs on Jose & 96L, but many of the members are hinting at a broad area of low pressure trying to consolidate over the western Caribbean in association w/ the CA monsoon gyre.
I count ~10 hits out of 50 12Z EPS members on the SE US or US Gulf coast from 96L. I think that's more than the 0Z had.
Wouldn't it be ironic if Jose were to save the SE from a big hit from 96L when one might think of Jose, himself, as a threat? It's certainly a realistic possibility with Jose hanging around so long. Hopefully for the SE's sake he will and do it offshore the east coast.
Wouldn't it be ironic if Jose were to save the SE from a big hit from 96L when one might think of Jose, himself, as a threat? It's certainly a realistic possibility with Jose hanging around so long. Hopefully for the SE's sake he will and do it offshore the east coast.
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The GFS is slowing it down more. What happened last time a storm slowed down on the modeling? 
.. Maybe it will slow down and wait for the trough to kick it OTS.
.. Maybe it will slow down and wait for the trough to kick it OTS.
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A major on the GFS with this I think? But it's hitting the major Caribbean areas though thankfully (even though they don't need it!).
It looks on the 18Z GFS like Jose may help protect the SE US by weakening the ridge to 96's north. Let's see how this evolves.
Edit: hope for Jose to hang around a long time! He also helped on the 12Z Euro.
Edit: hope for Jose to hang around a long time! He also helped on the 12Z Euro.
I think this one is going to either get grabbed by Jose this run or be shoved into the high and pushed into the US. There is no way that can break that large of a high.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is
likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is
likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the
Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor
the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
HMON much stronger this run. Gets it up to over 80 knots while the HWRF says a run at cat 5 is possible. Anyone remember how that turned out?