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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

910 mb with 23 kt winds on dropsonde

so maybe 908 mb, 909 is what they had since last recon
 
While many are transfixed on Jose's steering influence for Maria, we should not ignore the impact this upper level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will have on the steering pattern because recent GFS runs inside day 4-5 have been pushing this ULL closer and closer to Maria...
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114 mph gust at St Croix..
...1200 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REPORTED ON ST. CROIX...

A sustained wind of 75 mph (120 km/h) with a wind gust to 114 mph
(183 km/h) was recently reported in the western portion of St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Click to expand...
 
Webberweather53 said:
While many are transfixed on Jose's steering influence for Maria, we should not ignore the impact this upper level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will have on the steering pattern because recent GFS runs inside day 4-5 have been pushing this ULL closer and closer to Maria...
View attachment 1315
Click to expand...
I had just come here to mention that. I agree it could end up throwing a wrench in everything if it gets further east or Maria more west.
 
Jose dies a lot further west this run on the GFS which makes Maria go east

What would the ULL do?

CMC also same, Jose west, Maria east

Also the CMC has Lee alive, the GFS does not
 
ForsythSnow said:
I had just come here to mention that. I agree it could end up throwing a wrench in everything if it gets further east or Maria more west.
Click to expand...

Yeah especially considering the upper level low is closer to Maria and has deeper negative height anomalies...


Brent said:
Jose dies a lot further west this run on the GFS which makes Maria go east

What would the ULL do?
Click to expand...

It depends on it's juxtaposition to Maria. If you were to invert the ULL's potential vorticity, you would find that if Maria is aligned with the base of the ULL, it could get effectively kicked out to the east, however if say, the upper level low is closer to Maria and digs south more than forecast and/or Maria is simply to its northeast, then that would impart a mean NW-NNW steering flow on Maria, which would compete against the steering imparted by the Azores Bermuda high and Jose. This ULL could add yet another layer of complexity to what's already going to be a difficult forecast. We need to let this sort out for no less than 2 more days before we can hope to have any legitimate answers
 
GFS was east early on but pretty similar to 18z at 168

looks like it's gonna turn just before Long Island not too unlike Jose

CMC has Lee becoming a hurricane and also helping Maria go OTS Lol
 
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is that a west wobble @ the 0415 mark or is my eyes playing trick from bring up 16 hours

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probably the worst case scenario for Puerto Rico with the right front quadrant over them
 
recon winds definitely not nearly as impressive as earlier this evening... I haven't even really seen much to support a Cat 5, seems like a larger windfield though
 
The 0Z Euro as of hour 48 suggests that Maria will more than likely come a bit further west than the 12Z Euro. Look out E NC? Let's see how the rest of this run goes.
 
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