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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Shawn said:
I do believe she is currently a category 5. Two passes have returned pressures 5+ mb lower than the last advisory. Winds can take a bit to catch up at the surface. Praying for an eyewall replacement cycle at this point.
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Unfortunately, ERC is near impossible. With not long before landfall, and no evidence of any double maximums nor breaks in the eye, and a relatively stable if not slowly shrinking eye, it can only stay strong or intensify further.
 
Steady or very slow mb rise up to landfall is the billet, western flank on IR is more robust compared to eastern, likely a function of weak trough venting which can be clearly seen on WV. Just to be clear, max potential from a surge standpoint is already fixed and it's going to be catastrophic for areas along and east of landfall.
 
Notice deeper convection looks more heavyweight On its western side now, maybe a sign of a tiny bit of disruption?
 
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Not sure it will make a difference. but the southern part of that eye isn’t as impressive as it was. Maybe the eye opening some which could be a slight sign of weakening slightly not much


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AF300 Mission #25 is just about to enter.
 
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