Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

[snowlover91]

I still can't get over Katrina "only" being 125. Hard to believe this monster is much more powerful than Katrina.

Much of the surge has to do with the size of the wind field. A 125mph hurricane with a large wind field like Katrina will push in a lot more water than a really small 145mph hurricane. Unfortunately here with the way the coast is so flat here in LA there will be water pushing inland up to 40 miles like the NHC is calling for... I hope people have heeded the warnings and evacuated.

 

[Philstorm91]

Getting off and on heavy rains now from that band. Not a whole lot of wind. I have a rain gauge and a barometer/temperature/humidity weather station. I wish I had invested in an anemometer too.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Oh yeah I was in Galveston drove through Houston a month ago and I can't stop thinking about how lucky they are gonna be



Katrina was also falling apart at landfall it had been 175 the day before

Yeah usually when a hurricane is falling apart at landfall it doesn't do as much damage right ? I would much rather it be weakening at landfall than strengthening

 

[Stormsfury]

Yeah usually when a hurricane is falling apart at landfall it doesn't do as much damage right ? I would much rather it be weakening at landfall than strengthening

Well with Katrina, she underwent an ERC then shear also took hold which Katrina did not recover from... the by product was that the wind field broadened even wider than it's already expansive wind field ...

The storm surge was still exceptional because of the build up was already set when Katrina catapulted into Cat 5 status and was also a tremendously large hurricane (and the pressure at landfall was still very deep in the 920mb range)...

 

[tramadoc]

Lol that's for sure. However the thing to pay attention to is the mean wind in the lowest 150M. 130 knots should mean we see 155 or 150 at the next advisory.

Most likely.

 

[Downeastnc]

Much of the surge has to do with the size of the wind field. A 125mph hurricane with a large wind field like Katrina will push in a lot more water than a really small 145mph hurricane. Unfortunately here with the way the coast is so flat here in LA there will be water pushing inland up to 40 miles like the NHC is calling for... I hope people have heeded the warnings and evacuated.

Its two fold as well as the surge moves in rivers and such also reverse flow and are natural avenues for surge to run inland....it happens in NC all the time were we see surge as far inland as Greenville from the river running essentially running backwards. Now imagine something like the bayous of LA, I imagine places like Cameron LA are going to be completely gone after this one....

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[BHS1975]

Those mesovorts is whats makes a RI hurricane at landfall deadly.


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[snowlover91]

I've seen lots of powerful cat 4/5 storms with similar looks before, not sure I agree with Levi here in regards to that being a sign of some shear impacting the storm. My understanding has been that those radial fingers are indicative of improving outflow and upper level conditions in powerful hurricanes like this. Next recon will be interesting to see what they find.

 

[Shaggy]

At this point its clear this isnt gonna do a ERC in time so it needs to get onshore sooner rather than later. This doesn't need anymore time over water.

 

[snowlover91]

Also of note there is a bubble of 30-31C water right near where Laura is forecast to make landfall. As it tightens due to frictional effects of land and encounters this bubble of warmer waters I wouldn't be surprised to see one last burst of convection as it makes landfall. This will probably be 150-160mph range for landfall.

 

[NWTENN]

Katrina also had a 90 degree angle on the coast she was crashing into, causing water to pile up even more. Lots of variables in storm surge height. The ONLY thing that could have made Katrina worse would have been for her to be stronger. But she had a huge wind field and its hard to argue she was lacking in any way, surge wise.

 

[BHS1975]

Also of note there is a bubble of 30-31C water right near where Laura is forecast to make landfall. As it tightens due to frictional effects of land and encounters this bubble of warmer waters I wouldn't be surprised to see one last burst of convection as it makes landfall. This will probably be 150-160mph range for landfall.

View attachment 47430

Thats 88 degrees mind you. Insane.


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[Henry2326]

Mike's Weather Page on facebook....

NHC site showing possible surge heights from Laura www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/211610.shtml?inundation#contents. You can zoom in at specific areas. Another great tool is at https://cera.coastalrisk.live/. Laura expected to be 150mph at landfall tonight. Track remains close to the TX/LA line. www.spaghettimodels.com

 

[BHS1975]

Those therapeutic pools at the gym are 90 which feels toasty.


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[Arcc]

Getting closer to night time. It will be interesting to see if cloud tops start to cool again.

 

[mydoortotheworld]

Anyone have any input as far as shear being under or overmodeled so far? Is there a possibility shear verifies more than models show?

 

[NWTENN]

Mike's Weather Page on facebook....

NHC site showing possible surge heights from Laura www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/211610.shtml?inundation#contents. You can zoom in at specific areas. Another great tool is at https://cera.coastalrisk.live/. Laura expected to be 150mph at landfall tonight. Track remains close to the TX/LA line. www.spaghettimodels.com

View attachment 47431

Following the river Northeast of St Charles, that's pushing 9+ ft of water over 50 MILES inland. 50 freakin' miles. I realize a whole lot of that is swamp and lowlands, but that's a LONG way!

 

[Henry2326]

Anyone have any input as far as shear being under or overmodeled so far? Is there a possibility shear verifies more than models show?

Unlikely that it verifies more than models.....will have little effect.