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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Snowfan

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
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The GFS and the Euro has been developing this wave and has been mentioned by the NHC.
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for slow development by the middle of next
week while the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions may
be conducive for slow development by the middle of next week while
the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean tonight or early Monday. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for slow development by the middle
of next week while the wave moves westward about 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
The Euro's consistency with this wave has been nothing short of remarkable. For at least the past 15 runs in a row (if not more) the Euro has developed this AEW into a TC in some, way, shape or form this week in the east-central Atlantic, with more recent runs obviously becoming more aggressive with its future in the western Atlantic.
output_44qvgr.gif
 
NHC raising the odds of development to 40% in the next 5 days...
1. A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
Long way out and I'd probably bet on ots but the euro ensembles look interesting

received_1508644822552169.png
 
^ I may be remembering incorrectly, but didn't Mike V. earlier in August say that he thought early Sept would be quiet due to MJO and/or the lack of a CCKW?
Like Brent, I'm thinking recurve likely east of the CONUS as of now.
 
The eastern MDR SSTs have caught fire thanks to prolonged anomalous westerly winds in the wake of an MJO pulse now over the IO which is evolving into a quasi-stationary wave...

cdas-sflux_ssta_atltropics_1.png
 
Chances for development in the next 5 days up to 50%
1. A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
NHC has raised the chances of TCG to 70% in the next 5 days
1. A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located just
offshore of the coast of western Africa is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized
since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form in a few days
over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move westward at
15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several
days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
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