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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Grit posted this on amx: euro ensembles looks alot like 6z gfs and NHC. Crazy path, but atleast consensus. So tired of tracking this thing, ready for it to do what its gonna do and move on.

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Had a few minutes there where the convective appearance seemed for the first time so far to be A+. But thankfully, we're back down to a degraded and lopsided storm. -70C tops are to the SE, with the -60 ring barely hanging on in the NW quad. Perhaps an artifact of Florence moving too fast, a la Gordon in the GOM? Watching closely (1min GOES-16 link in case you don't already have one or are looking for a new one: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2)
 

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maineweatherman said:
Had a few minutes there where the convective appearance seemed for the first time so far to be A+. But thankfully, we're back down to a degraded and lopsided storm. -70C tops are to the SE, with the -60 ring barely hanging on in the NW quad. Perhaps an artifact of Florence moving too fast, a la Gordon in the GOM? Watching closely (1min GOES-16 link in case you don't already have one or are looking for a new one: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2)
Click to expand...
Im seeing that as well. Lot of warming last 60-90 minutes north and northwest portions of the COD. Seems to be some dry air going by the upper and mid level water vapor views
 
Waiting for Shettley to chime in. He must not be forecasting a futher inland track to western SC.
 
maineweatherman said:
Had a few minutes there where the convective appearance seemed for the first time so far to be A+. But thankfully, we're back down to a degraded and lopsided storm. -70C tops are to the SE, with the -60 ring barely hanging on in the NW quad. Perhaps an artifact of Florence moving too fast, a la Gordon in the GOM? Watching closely (1min GOES-16 link in case you don't already have one or are looking for a new one: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2)
Click to expand...

Something worth noting is as Florence slows down and traverses the Gulf Stream it's likely everything will become more symmetrical and we could see some strengthening prior to landfall assuming no EWRC starts.
 
Will be interesting to see just how far north it gets today and tonight, noticed this tidbit from the Rah AFD....


06Z/special release upr air data over the sern US this morning indicates a developing mid-upr level ridge there is already 10-20 meters stronger than even 00Z, 6hr model forecasts.

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Y’all, I am still having trouble believing that this thing will perfectly track the SE coastline SW from Wilmington to Charleston and come ashore near the GA/SC line and move WSW int GA. I’m sorry but that’s absurd. I think it may yet go through upper SC.
 
Rain Cold said:
Y’all, I am still having trouble believing that this thing will perfectly track the SE coastline SW from Wilmington to Charleston and come ashore near the GA/SC line and move WSW int GA. I’m sorry but that’s absurd. I think it may yet go through upper SC.
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I've never seen anything like this; stalling and moving perfectly along the coast.
 
I agree with you in fact I'm inclined to think this actually starts turning West sooner instead of getting as far north stalling and heading back Southwest. Especially considering the ridge is coming in stronger and I think arcc mention this yesterday
Rain Cold said:
Y’all, I am still having trouble believing that this thing will perfectly track the SE coastline SW from Wilmington to Charleston and come ashore near the GA/SC line and move WSW int GA. I’m sorry but that’s absurd. I think it may yet go through upper SC.
Click to expand...

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The coastal flooding. Shaping up to be similar to Matthew. More wind for the I would think.

Though Raleigh will have much less rain with Flo. Don’t have the aid of upper level trough that we had with Matthew.

4EE86AC4-E864-463F-B8E7-C544F06E359E.png
 
metwannabe said:
Will be interesting to see just how far north it gets today and tonight, noticed this tidbit from the Rah AFD....


06Z/special release upr air data over the sern US this morning indicates a developing mid-upr level ridge there is already 10-20 meters stronger than even 00Z, 6hr model forecasts.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Seems to be the theme these days. Would this bend the track west sooner or just stall her sooner?


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Don't we often see strong ridging highs back off a bit in the last 48 hours? Seems like that's always the case with our NW trend with winter systems. I know that this is a different setup and invest 95L has really been pumping the high, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the ridge lift or weaken a bit over the next few runs.
 
BHS1975 said:
Seems to be the theme these days. Would this bend the track west sooner or just stall her sooner?


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That's a great question I would think it would there would be some stalling before it turn left but I'm really not the one to answer that haha

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packfan98 said:
Don't we often see strong ridging highs back off a bit in the last 48 hours? Seems like that's always the case with our NW trend with winter systems. I know that this is a different setup and invest 95L has really been pumping the high, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the ridge lift or weaken a bit over the next few runs.
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Something of note I've been tracking since yesterday is the EPS and Euro have been consistently verifying too far SW even 12 hours out from a forecast cycle and the UK ensembles haven't even been close. The 6z GFS and NAM did come in a touch north, the 12z runs will be key to watch and see if we get any additional shifts like that. One thing I'm watching closely is the RGEM. It's not a tropical model but it did exceptionally well a few weeks ago with that tropical storm in the gulf and the further east track that it ended up taking.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_44.png
 
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