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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

maineweatherman said:
If we can get this ring of -70C cloud tops to close off and maintain itself around the eye, and if we can eliminate that dry air on the western side, whoever finds the core is gonna have some big time troubles down the line. Right on the cusp of taking it to the 'next level' IMO, we'll see if it actually happens. Link to where I got this image from: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2
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I love women...I especially love, crazy, drunk women who don’t know where the hell they’re goin. Always have...but this is one that I wouldn’t wanna tangle with.


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down to 130, no changes on watches to the south yet

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.8N 77.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.8N 78.2W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 70NW.
 
Later in the period, the dynamical model spread
increases but most of the guidance has continued its southward
shift, and now take Florence southwestward near the coast of South
Carolina by day 4. The NHC track has been adjusted southward at
days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect
for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean
is south of the NHC track forecast, and additional southward
adjustment may be warranted in future advisories.
 
That is crazy how it just hits the breaks and goes south once it reaches NC. Great news for folks up my way, though. Just wonder now if they should have waited until today to make the decision about schools. Still would have been 48 hours ahead of time. And I think a lot of folks are going to look at this as getting worried about nothing and won't do anything to prepare the next time there is a threat inland here until the last minute, thinking the track is wrong and will change a couple of days out like now.
 
Wow the 6z gfs just demolishes the SE coastline of NC
gfs_florence.png
 
A couple more Southward adjustments, and I’ll be looking T partly cloudy and breezy! This has to be one of most bizarre tracks ever forecasted!!
 
Looks like models may be trending a little more north prior to the stall and retrograde, at least the 06z NAM and GFS appear too. This is a nightmare to forecast
packfan98 said:
Wow the 6z gfs just demolishes the SE coastline of NC
gfs_florence.png
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Arcc said:
Hmm a decent number of those ensembles have it staying off shore enough to strengthen. Even the Euro Op has weakening stopping.
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Yeah if it little further north before the stall and then heads almost due south before turning back West it definitely keeps it over water longer and although there will be upwelling the Gulfstream is out there so

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metwannabe said:
Yeah if it little further north before the stall and then heads almost due south before turning back West it definitely keeps it over water longer and although there will be upwelling the Gulfstream is out there so

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And temps are way above normal.


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metwannabe said:
Yeah if it little further north before the stall and then heads almost due south before turning back West it definitely keeps it over water longer and although there will be upwelling the Gulfstream is out there so

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Actually the highest TCHP of it's life. I'm curious how shear looks at that time.

2018253at.jpg
 
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