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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

I'm starting to think Delta really is heading toward Lafayette at this point. Like the turn to the NE may be sharper than modeled. If, and I do mean if, this storm beelines to a closer path to BR, I might need to brace for some serious gusty winds tonight.
 
000
URNT12 KNHC 091840
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL262020
A. 09/18:18:00Z
B. 28.72 deg N 093.54 deg W
C. 700 mb 2815 m
D. 967 mb
E. 030 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN SW
G. C40
H. 81 kt
I. 121 deg 24 nm 18:11:00Z
J. 199 deg 103 kt
K. 121 deg 27 nm 18:10:00Z
L. 69 kt
M. 312 deg 17 nm 18:23:00Z
N. 053 deg 69 kt
O. 313 deg 32 nm 18:27:30Z
P. 13 C / 3048 m
Q. 19 C / 3049 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF303 2026A DELTA OB 19
MAX FL WIND 104 KT 029 / 16 NM 16:30:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 128 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

This VM is from earlier (2:18 PM EDT).
 
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Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
300 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...3 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge at Freshwater Canal
Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of more
than 4.5 feet above ground level.

The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at Texas Point
recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind
gust of 70 mph (113 km/h).

A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has been reported at the Jack
Brooks Regional Airport near Port Arthur, Texas, within the past
hour.

A wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h) has been observed at Nederland,
Texas.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cameron, Louisiana, recently
reported a wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 93.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

By the way, another stellar job by the NHC!!
 
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GaWx said:
Hopefully, that is at least a little bit of good news (well at least hopefully it will mean it won’t be as bad wind-wise as it was appearing) for an unfortunate area being hit a 2nd time within 6 weeks by a hurricane. But even so, the storm surge and rainfall both look to be about as potent as before and it is still a hurricane and a high impact storm. The highest winds don’t tell nearly the whole story. This breadth of TS force winds is rather large and any areas with these can have danger from trees falling (I had a one hit my house and winds weren’t even close to TS strength) as well as prolonged power outages. These TS force winds will go well inland. In addition, there is a threat for tornadoes on the right side of the center.
Click to expand...
Just to add a little to that, many areas in southern Louisiana have already had over 6 inches of rainfall since midnight so with this wide area of TS winds that will probably mean a lot of falling trees an power outages over much of southern Louisiana and even into Mississippi. The other thing to remember about the storm surge is it’s been building for the last couple days under a wide wind field and with a category 3 most of that time... now with the NE movement it’s going in almost exactly at a 90 degree angle so even if we see it lower to cat1 before landfall, the surge will be more like that of a low end cat3... very similar to the storm surge in NC a couple years ago from Florence
 
Chazwin said:
Just to add a little to that, many areas in southern Louisiana have already had over 6 inches of rainfall since midnight so with this wide area of TS winds that will probably mean a lot of falling trees an power outages over much of southern Louisiana and even into Mississippi. The other thing to remember about the storm surge is it’s been building for the last couple days under a wide wind field and with a category 3 most of that time... now with the NE movement it’s going in almost exactly at a 90 degree angle so even if we see it lower to cat1 before landfall, the surge will be more like that of a low end cat3... very similar to the storm surge in NC a couple years ago from Florence
Click to expand...
Yes, like I said earlier, my own location picked up 8 inches of rain last night from a band that stalled over the Baton Rouge area. So even TS winds might be more damaging than it would have been with little rain before the storm. It could also make flooding issues in this area more likely tonight, particularly if some training bands come overhead. I'm not planning on getting sleep tonight until things get calmer.
 
Thankfully the winds look fairly tame in the live feeds from the northern eyewall so far....probably barely a Cat 1 at this point wind wise, though it does not take much to remove a blue tarp.....hopefully the 5-8 ft of surge doesnt make things that much worse in a already hard hit area.......that rain though is going to be the big problem that 8-12" additional the models have on top of places that have already seen 6-10" is bad news.

 
Downeastnc said:
Thankfully the winds look fairly tame in the live feeds from the northern eyewall so far....probably barely a Cat 1 at this point wind wise, though it does not take much to remove a blue tarp.....hopefully the 5-8 ft of surge doesnt make things that much worse in a already hard hit area.......that rain though is going to be the big problem that 8-12" additional the models have on top of places that have already seen 6-10" is bad news.

Click to expand...

Reminds me of some of the nc classics where max winds aren't crazy high but the wind field is pretty large so you get the widespread power outages and downed trees
 
SD said:
Reminds me of some of the nc classics where max winds aren't crazy high but the wind field is pretty large so you get the widespread power outages and downed trees
Click to expand...

Yeah I dunno if it lucky or unlucky its hitting where it is as the live feed shows a lot of damage from Laura still so its hard to gauge what this one is doing....I imagine there are not many trees left and the ones that are probably are tough enough to handle this if they made it through Laura lol...
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah I dunno if it lucky or unlucky its hitting where it is as the live feed shows a lot of damage from Laura still so its hard to gauge what this one is doing....I imagine there are not many trees left and the ones that are probably are tough enough to handle this if they made it through Laura lol...
Click to expand...
That northern eyewall looks stout

Screenshot_20201009-175618_RadarOmega.jpg
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DELTA TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
IN THE LANDFALL AREA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah I dunno if it lucky or unlucky its hitting where it is as the live feed shows a lot of damage from Laura still so its hard to gauge what this one is doing....I imagine there are not many trees left and the ones that are probably are tough enough to handle this if they made it through Laura lol...
Click to expand...

Good points. OTOH, there are likely many trees that barely made it through Laura that won’t make it through a second storm right on its heels.
 
Snowfan said:
Delta has become the first Greek-named hurricane to make landfall in the US.
Click to expand...

Also record setting 10th US landfall of the season

National Weather Service Doppler radar imagery, Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, and surface observations indicate
that Delta has made landfall near Creole, Louisiana, around 600 PM
CDT (2300 UTC) with estimated maximum sustained winds of 100 mph
(155 km/h). Delta is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The minimum central pressure estimated from
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 970 mb (28.64
inches).
 
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