• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

Certainly not looking the best on sat presentation currently looks like the entire SE side of the eye opened up...recon going in now to take a look....this storm has a habit of looking like crap but not reflecting it in the pressure/winds....
 
Certainly not looking the best on sat presentation currently looks like the entire SE side of the eye opened up...recon going in now to take a look....this storm has a habit of looking like crap but not reflecting it in the pressure/winds....


Yeah, the NOAA buoy just measured a 953 mb SLP. So, not weakening any yet. That's actually 2 mb stronger. Satellites only tell so much.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, the NOAA buoy just measured a 953 mb SLP. So, not weakening any yet. Satellites only tell so much.

Plane finding around 957 that last pass, looks like the shear might be coming into play, NW eyewall drop was 84 knts at the surface.....
 
Looks like it is trying to get the eye cleared out again...not going to win any beauty pageants but still a nasty cane....
 
Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Delta has been generally steady in strength during the past several
hours as it starts to close in on the southwestern Louisiana coast.
An eye has occasionally been evident in geostationary satellite
images, and deep convection remains quite intense around that
feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently found have been
investigating Delta this morning, and recently reported maximum
flight-level winds of 125 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 99 kt.
Based on a blend of this data, the initial intensity is held at
105 kt. The hurricane appears to be leveling off in strength as
recent microwave passes show some asymmetry in the eyewall and
vertical tilt due to southwesterly shear. The core of the hurricane
passed very close to NOAA buoy 42002 a few hours ago, and the
pressure at the buoy fell to 953 mb. The buoy also reported peak
winds around 70 kt and a significant wave height of about 35 ft.

The major hurricane is now moving northward at 10 kt. The track
forecast models remain quite consistent. Delta is forecast to
continue moving northward today and then turn north-northeastward
tonight between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over
the south-central United States. This motion is expected to take
the core of the hurricane to the Louisiana coast this evening.
After landfall, a turn to the northeast is forecast as a larger
trough moves eastward toward Delta, and that motion should continue
until the cyclone dissipates over Tennessee or Kentucky in a few
days. The models remain tightly clustered, and only minor tweaks
were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

Delta is expected to move over waters with progressively lower
oceanic heat content as it approaches the Louisiana coast. These
less favorable oceanic conditions combined with an increase in
southwesterly shear should cause Delta to weaken a little before
it moves onshore. Regardless, Delta is forecast to be near major
hurricane intensity when it makes landfall and significant impacts
are expected (see Key Messages below). After landfall, rapid
weakening is anticipated and Delta is forecast to fall below
hurricane strength tonight or early Saturday and dissipate in about
3 days.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The
highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents
in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local
officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast
decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is a relatively
large hurricane.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Deltas center this evening and tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 26.9N 93.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0600Z 34.2N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
Unfortunately it looks like Lake Charles is going to get raked by the eyewall. I saw a picture the other day taken from a drone overhead there and shows many homes and buildings still covered with blue tarps on their roof. This is not what those poor folks need.
 
Unfortunately it looks like Lake Charles is going to get raked by the eyewall. I saw a picture the other day taken from a drone overhead there and shows many homes and buildings still covered with blue tarps on their roof. This is not what those poor folks need.

They are the 2020 version of my hometown in 2004.

See Yellow dot.
1602266600341.png
 
that last pass on recon only found 60-70 knt winds at the surface in the northern eyewall....

Hopefully, that is at least a little bit of good news (well at least hopefully it will mean it won’t be as bad wind-wise as it was appearing) for an unfortunate area being hit a 2nd time within 6 weeks by a hurricane. But even so, the storm surge and rainfall both look to be about as potent as before and it is still a hurricane and a high impact storm. The highest winds don’t tell nearly the whole story. This breadth of TS force winds is rather large and any areas with these can have danger from trees falling (I had a one hit my house and winds weren’t even close to TS strength) as well as prolonged power outages. These TS force winds will go well inland. In addition, there is a threat for tornadoes on the right side of the center.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top