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Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024

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Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico just northeast of Tulum at about 11Z. The landfall intensity
is somewhat uncertain, but surface observations suggest the central
pressure rose into the 977-980 mb range before landfall. The
cyclone is now weakening as it moves farther inland, and the
initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/14 kt. For the next 24 h or so,
Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the
western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern
United States. After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely
as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a
combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the
central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should bring the
center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h. Subsequently, a
northward motion through the break appears likely. While the track
guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty
based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl. A
stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering
from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and
thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system
would probably continue more northwestward. Overall the guidance
favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the
right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the
right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the
forecast track could be necessary later today.

Beryl should continue to weaken while over land, and it is expected
to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. After that,
it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over
the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification can begin in earnest.
Based on this and the overall trends of the intensity guidance, the
new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start after 24 h
and continue until landfall. One important note is that the GFS
and ECMWF suggest that ongoing westerly shear could decrease after
48-60 h, accompanied by an increase in upper-level divergence.
Should this occur, Beryl could strengthen more than currently
forecast, especially if the center stays over water longer than
forecast.
 
12Z UKMET landfall is all of the way up to Corpus Christi. The 0Z run was in NE MX. But this isn’t at all surprising considering clearcut N trends.

12Z CMC at MX/TX border, which is ~100 miles N of 0Z run. It is still the furthest S landfall by far compared to the ICON (Galveston), GFS (CC like 6Z), and UKMET (CC).
 
12Z GEFS: increase in strong members to the NE (I see at least 5 members there between strong cat 1 and cat 2):

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The 12Z Euro is significantly NE of the 6Z’s CC landfall with it going ashore about dead-on mid TX coast. Also, it is much stronger at 971 mb vs 989 mb at 6Z!

Those old ICON runs into Galveston are looking more realistic.
 
1:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 5
Location: 20.8°N 88.8°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Even Lake Charles, LA is in the cone now.
 
Just for the record, these were the 12Z June 30th runs of the ICON and JMA (and these weren’t just freak runs as a good number of later runs for both were similar):

12Z 6/30 ICON run into Galveston:
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12Z 6/30 JMA run into Galveston:
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Top of this page, both recon planes went to or over Florida. One has continued on so far.
 
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From elsewhere, something to possibly keep in mind regarding 2 of the 3 12Z hurricane model runs:

“Both HAFS's are losing where Beryl's center is this afternoon and are fixing on a ‘false’ center of circulation north of the Yucatan peninsula by hour-6 during the run.”

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