Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024

[GaWx]

From 5 PM NHC discussion:
Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that left the storm
around 17Z reported that the central pressure had risen to near 974
mb, and also reported flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an
intensity of 95 kt. ***Since that time, as happened yesterday
afternoon, despite the ongoing shear the eye has become better
defined in both satellite imagery and in radar data from Grand
Cayman and Cuba. Given this increase in central core organization,
the initial intensity will be held at 95 kt pending the arrival of
the next aircraft near 00Z. Satellite imagery also shows that the
outflow has become better defined in the northeastern semicircle.***

 

[GaWx]

18Z ICON: very slightly SW of 12Z on S-central TX coast

 

[Shaggy]

Looks like weakening trend has owed and it is looking better on satellite

 

[accu35]

He’s back

 

[BHS1975]

He’s back
View attachment 148328

Bout to "barrel" through the Yucatan.


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[accu35]

Bout to "barrel" through the Yucatan.


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I’m thinking the tip

 

[NWMSGuy]

Some of the models bend Beryl back toward the mid-south eventually. We could definitely use the rain.

 

[Henry2326]

I’m thinking the tip

HWRF had many forecast of it more north at the tip with more of the storm over water. It maintained intensity and further north into TX, between Corpus Christie and Galvaston. Let's see if that version shows back up in the coming days.

 

[BHS1975]

I’m thinking the tip

That's what she said.


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[Snowfan]

 

[Henry2326]

18z HWRF running now. Big difference between 12z and 18z approaching the peninsula.



18z has it holding together as it enters the water, as compared to 12z where pressure rises significantly.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Brent]

Pressure dropping again. She's not done yet

 

[Henry2326]

18z vs 12z HWRF.....further north landfall in TX. Padre Island

 

[Brent]

...BERYL STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
9:30 PM EDT Thu Jul 4
Location: 19.6°N 85.1°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

 

[accu35]

...BERYL STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
9:30 PM EDT Thu Jul 4
Location: 19.6°N 85.1°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

Doesn’t look west motion to me

 

[GaWx]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL IS APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES
EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 85.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
———————————-

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 19.6N 85.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 20.0N 87.5W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/0000Z 20.9N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1200Z 21.9N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 07/0000Z 22.9N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 23.8N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 24.7N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 26.8N 98.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 28.9N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[GaWx]

0Z globals’ W Gulf landfalls starting with northernmost: further N than 12Z runs:

-ICON: mid-TX coast ~25 miles N of 12Z run

-GFS: Corpus Christi, which is ~150 miles N of 12Z’s NE MX landfall

-UKMET: ~40 miles N of 12Z run, which places it ~40-50 miles S of the TX border

-CMC: ~25 miles N of 12Z run or ~100 miles S of the TX border

-Euro not out yet

 

[GaWx]

It’s unanimous for the main 0Z globals. The 0Z Euro is also further N than the 12Z (by 125+ miles) and is even ~100 miles N of the 18Z! Though pretty strong, it isn’t as strong as the 18Z. Landfall is halfway between Brownsville and Corpus Christi!

So, 3 of these 5 0Z globals are in TX.

Anyone following the 0Z hurricane models?

 

[Belle Lechat]

1:00 AM CDT Fri Jul 5
Location: 19.8°N 86.2°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph