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Pattern Magnificent March

MRStorm said:
All of the Mets in B'ham have already mentioned a "vigorous system that will need to be watched for severe weather" during this time period, and now we have a thread.
Click to expand...

From the last line of the long term section from the most recent BMX AFD:

"Confidence just isn`t there with how the parameters
are lining up to mention any severe threat for Thursday/Friday right
now."

Why was a thread made?
 
Last edited:
vtrap90 said:
From the last line of the long term section from the most recent BMX AFD:

"Confidence just isn`t there with how the parameters
are lining up to mention any severe threat for Thursday/Friday right
now."

Why was a thread made?
Click to expand...
You will have to ask DadofJax. Obviously some mets and others think the system needs to be watched. No one I read said there would be severe, just a vigorous storm system that should be watched this time of year. And with the map above by pcbjr, as strong cold front is modeled to be coming through at some point after the upper 70s and near 80 late next week.
 
Don’t care what happens in the weather world, as long as Duke loses tonight, all is right in the world! I think I’ll road trip to Roxboro tomorrow!
 
hit the 90s in the Amarillo area... literally the only place I'd ever move to in the state of Texas..
 
We have the right background state to take advantage of a favorable synoptic pattern for severe weather, we just need a trigger to set off this powder keg and who knows when/if we'll get that. Still gives me the chills we're following 2011 this closely even though obviously the inter-event variability is so large it doesn't necessarily effectively downscale the way you think it would but that's besides the point. A hot and dry high plains adjacent to a warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico and relatively beign/wetter than average central MS valley is a recipe for big trouble if other pieces cooperate. There's a very good reason we had a dry line penetrate all the way into AL, MS, and TN last week, this EML is insane thanks to the drought over west Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas and the rest of the southwestern US.

cd38.83.0.69.81.22.40.46.prcp.png
ANOM2m_fcstMTH_ntham.png

Current US drought monitor.
Screen Shot 2018-03-24 at 12.42.41 AM.png

29405282_594481050897618_932689857_o.png
 
whamby said:
hit the 90s in the Amarillo area... literally the only place I'd ever move to in the state of Texas..
Click to expand...

been a rough few months there... extreme drought and basically no snow(in the one place in the state that usually sees a ton). At least we've had plenty of rain
 
I like small to mid sized cities, where there's at least a year to year chance of seeing snow.. no idea how the economy is there. Probably not that good. Ideally I'd move to the front range, Pueblo or Colorado Springs.
 
The Euro and GFS look mighty interesting for NC and SC on Friday wrt severe weather, pretty decent looking synoptic setup w/ a low passing to our NW over the apps, nice deep layer veering and shear, convective looking precipitation field and there's some marginal CAPE to work with (which will likely be a limiting factor)
 
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