Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
There are going to be higher snow totals in the NC mtns from a nor’easter than in DC. Bless their hearts. Already 7 inches in wolf laurel, NC.
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Pattern Magnificent March
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Nomanslandva
Member
For free, this really is pretty good! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/
The zoom is cool, especially on the hi-res models. The pain is you can't trust the snow map at all. You have to look at 925, 850, 700 temps and sort of guess what might be between. Like last night we wasted snow on sleet. Had to look at text soundings to see the warm nose was between 825 and 750. Took a while to figure it out but it is pretty cool. I am pretty sure someone here shared it before and that is where I picked it up but just in case ...
The zoom is cool, especially on the hi-res models. The pain is you can't trust the snow map at all. You have to look at 925, 850, 700 temps and sort of guess what might be between. Like last night we wasted snow on sleet. Had to look at text soundings to see the warm nose was between 825 and 750. Took a while to figure it out but it is pretty cool. I am pretty sure someone here shared it before and that is where I picked it up but just in case ...
Kylo
Member
UK has bulk of precipitation south of I-40 and Euro has it north of I-40. UK probably to supressive, but hope that Euro is slightly to far north. Icon splits the middle.
Cool , maybe N SCcan get in on this magical clipper!?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
While this is an ancient analog from a cooler time in the early 20th century, I had a lot of trouble finding potential analogs to the weekend threat in North Carolina. The large-scale pattern leading into this dynamic duo of back-to-back cold air damming events bears a lot of similarities to this weekend wrt the placement and intensity of the surface and mid-level upper level features (as mentioned earlier for example, you don't get 1040-1045 highs all that often in March in southern Ontario and Quebec and this event apparently had one). The snowfall distribution is also pretty consistent w/ what I think the probability distribution looks like for this event atm, with the most significant snow/ice most likely to occur from the US-64 corridor and points N into VA and the north-central mountains.
UKMET 96 hour forecast
6z March 6, 1912 MSLP & 1000-500 mb thickness via NOAA 20CRv2c
UKMET 96 hour forecast
6z March 6, 1912 MSLP & 1000-500 mb thickness via NOAA 20CRv2c
18z NAM at the end of its range (lolololololololhahahahahlol) is slightly south with the snow line vs. the 12z run.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Along/north of US HWY 64 corridor is sitting in a legitimately decent position for this weekend, obviously even better as you close in on the VA border and mountains.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
On the bright side i guess it’s a good thing we aren’t getting NAM’d near truncation
GFS looks better farther south than the last cycle. Of course, it is the gfs.
Somebody close to the transition line is going to get a nice thump out of this
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Somebody close to the transition line is going to get a nice thump out of this
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Even without a whole lot of WAA aloft and a sheared/flat wave there's going to be such a strong along barrier PGF damming cold air against the east side of the apps gotta believe there could be some IP/ZR in this one even if we see a nice front end thump
Lol in all seriousness though as Eric has been pointing out how strong that high pressure is, I wouldn't be shocked if this actually trended a hair South.GFS looks better farther south than the last cycle. Of course, it is the gfs.
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Yuck and how many times has there ever been freezing rain this late in March? Wow
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Very rarely although in areas of NE GA the March 1983 event delivered some from my knowledge. I certainly pose the same question in that how many times have we seen a 1045 high over Quebec in late March? The fact I had to go all the way back to the early 20th century to find one just in March (of course in a colder climate much earlier in the month) says a lot about this setup
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Pretty good trends today. Slow and steady.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I honestly won't mind the sleet and freezing rain. Really anything after the first week-10 days of March is a huge bonus, we've been spoiled beyond belief this month and getting snow this late in March is insane and at least gives us something to talk about.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
18z ICON holds steady from US HWY 64 and points N, crushes metwannabe
Even if the storm itself doesn’t trend South, the frozen precip and wedge could be a lot stronger than modeled, especially with its strength and maybe fresh snowpack could help also?
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Ugh, looks further north than last time with the snow.