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Pattern Magnificent March

I've always regretted not having a kite to fly during the Bliz :) Some good ripstop with graphite struts, gov grade nylon cord, and 75 mph plus winds...man, oh, man, with a big enough kite I could fly, lol. Maybe this March is my second chance! Something is coming because everything is budding out, and that's tempting the fates..shaking their plant butts at old man winter...not smart in the middle of Feb, no matter how the models look. Of course, I've seen it work out for the plants in recent winters, but the new climate norms will include big swings...so I think plants shaking their fannies at winter in Feb is hubris.
 
He has officially moved to March
da3b758ea83bb9f5293c5a0ce22d2cc7.jpg


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Storm5 said:
He has officially moved to March
da3b758ea83bb9f5293c5a0ce22d2cc7.jpg


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"Sudden spike" is 26 sunspots. That has to be the stupidest most desperate attempt to explain the MJO speed. He's also using who knows what model, likely the CFSV2 to show those temps in several weeks. I think we torch in March. We will get our last major intrusion for a few days in probably mid March, then maybe another one or two before April bringing only a frost at most.
 
whatalife said:
Why does anyone listen to this guy...


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I can't wait until next year when he starts chirping "December to remember", then "Oh well, January and February will make up for it".. Then come mid-January, he will start singing "Cold and stormy February... winter delayed but not denied"... It's like a broken record
 
ForsythSnow said:
"Sudden spike" is 26 sunspots. That has to be the stupidest most desperate attempt to explain the MJO speed. He's also using who knows what model, likely the CFSV2 to show those temps in several weeks. I think we torch in March. We will get our last major intrusion for a few days in probably mid March, then maybe another one or two before April bringing only a frost at most.
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W
 
ForsythSnow said:
"Sudden spike" is 26 sunspots. That has to be the stupidest most desperate attempt to explain the MJO speed. He's also using who knows what model, likely the CFSV2 to show those temps in several weeks. I think we torch in March. We will get our last major intrusion for a few days in probably mid March, then maybe another one or two before April bringing only a frost at most.
Click to expand...
He’s going with the Pioneer model!
 
ForsythSnow said:
"Sudden spike" is 26 sunspots. That has to be the stupidest most desperate attempt to explain the MJO speed. He's also using who knows what model, likely the CFSV2 to show those temps in several weeks. I think we torch in March. We will get our last major intrusion for a few days in probably mid March, then maybe another one or two before April bringing only a frost at most.
Click to expand...
This is most likely a better explain for the MJO's speed and/or is getting at the root cause(s). MJO speed can be dictated by a plethora of variables, projection onto the RMM's principal components is one, a big one is advection by the background flow (for example during La Ninas with a weaker, less extensive Pacific Jet like we observed in this case, (remember the lack of jet extension I mentioned a few weeks ago?) the slower jet advects the MJO less quickly into the W hem & via versa during El Niño), the amount of convection can also influence MJO phase speed since convection is often co-located within and in the wake of most convectively coupled equatorial waves, more convection will slow the MJO down, but there's a limit on how intense the convection can become. It's also possible that the movement of the MJO into the descending branch of the Walker Cell and the sudden stratospheric warming event could be influencing the distribution & intensity of convection associated with the MJO and the plethora of CC waves that comprise it
 
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