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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

BullCityWx said:
Kylo, do you honestly believe this is a 10:1 column? At this point, thats being just a little intellectually dishonest if you do. Not an attack, just an observation.
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It's not 10" was the point...and it won't be 20:1...that's if the Euro even holds that high amounts.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Good morning, all.

I wake up a bit aggravated for N. Georgia this AM. The overnight models have ticked east with the precip here rather than an expansion westward as hoped for. At this point, while I'd love to see a reversal of this overnight trend to bring Atlanta better into the game, now I'm hoping we don't lose this any further east. The hoped-for west-central Tennessee to Macon track of the 500MB now appears completely off the table.

Hopefully, trends come back westward today now that the main players are well within the ROAB network.
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Appears we’ve lost it for western suburbs except maybe some flurries or brief snow shower. I think the downtown connector could be the dividing line. East of it will have a better shot at some brief accumulation
 
Winston-Salem is in an odd location for this storm looking at all the modeled data. Everything shows the area just outside the heaviest precipitation, some of the data has it hugging the line for the heavier stuff. Too far west for the coastal low impacts but too far north for the ULL impacts. Hoping to see some of the precip bands come northwest some.
 
BullCityWx said:
That is simply not what the data shows.


At some point, you have to let go of the past and believe what your eyes are showing you dude.
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I do agree with you and I really believe that RDU will see more than 2-3” but to play devils advocate I think the strong winds are going to hurt dendrite growth so I don’t think we see quite 20:1
 
KyloG said:
Nice HRRR run...simliar to the 6z Euro...4-6" (kuchera) across most of SC-NC...

Even has the higher jackpot areas the same...nice to see some model agreement.

View attachment 191728
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Yep I have been begging for a CAM to line up with an OP in a combination that feels reasonable and I think we finally got one. Generally speaking, heavier snow along and northeast of I-26 in SC, uncertain placement but 4-8" potential for much of CNC, a northern/western Foothills minimum. The coastal disagreement I personally am tossing still, I just don't see how this isn't a great storm out there
 
Charlotte area has potential but this is showing up in both the hrrr and rap. Would really cut into their totals with. Snow to the west north east and south of them.
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jackendrickwx said:
Yep I have been begging for a CAM to line up with an OP in a combination that feels reasonable and I think we finally got one. Generally speaking, heavier snow along and northeast of I-26 in SC, uncertain placement but 4-8" potential for much of CNC, a northern/western Foothills minimum. The coastal disagreement I personally am tossing still, I just don't see how this isn't a great storm out there
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Definitely...we have had almost no model agreement and finally getting some today. Hopefully the NAMs/RGEM follow up too.
 
Really not the trends we're wanting to see for western and southern areas overnight. I have yet to see one short range or global model show a better tilt or strengthening trend with the ULL. It's been the opposite. If that doesn't stop or reverse, you'll see the snowfall maps continue to get shredded in the west. Eastern half is still up for grabs with the coastal, and that will come down to a nowcast.
 
Ross said:
i'm never done with globals, i still like to use them up to game time to corroborate trends and movements aloft
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Thank you. You might be able to step away from certain output, but looking at trends in key features is critical, and one should use every tool at one's disposal to evaluate those.
 
Branch said:
That’s what I’m seeing from some local Atl mets. Unless they are wrong.
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Even the models showing 2 inches or so in the city are barely getting the precipitation into eastern Fulton County. You're right about the western suburbs, and the hope is things shift west for all of us as the day goes on. Decent trend on the HRRR at least.
 
DopplerWx said:
hrrr is showing these heavy bands pushing thru clt just like the rgem had, going to be some super heavy snow and big totals under these.
View attachment 191729
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Said all along from UNCC up to Asheboro over to Burlington ( Follow Hwy 49 on a map) would do very well. Lol the Old Uwharrie mtn chain. This region usually does good on precip because of the little speed bump / Lift the air gets from counterclockwise flow from low pressures in SC coastal waters or fetch coming from SE to NW. Seen it a lot. In addition to ore graphical lift, You get some heat/thermal differentials as the air gets lifted coming through sand hills. Summertime you will see peidmont trofs occasionally set up shop in this region because of this topography lift and soil changing from sandy ( hotter) to red clay.
 
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