Bigedd09
Member
Getting concerned not seeing any posts about the weathernext lol
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
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BHS1975
Member
If it would back up west just a bit I would feel better here.
Glad to see that added that dip along I-95 up here. Looks like the AI models and parallel NBM, old globals and short range models looked better. Looks like AI against the rest of the modeling world, interested to see which handles this coastal bomb, location and precip shield expansion better.Latest NES predictions. Lowered quite a bit on the Boom and Bust maps. Last night my area was 5-19”. Now it’s 1-12”. I believe that the triangle area and east should get bumped up more today. Triad might win the dry slot award???
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Bigedd09
Member
Alright everyone. The start of 12z runs are starting now with the HRRR. Let’s trend this thing into a beast today. Good luck everyone
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There's already virga in VA and northern NC
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Can report flurries at 2200 feet in Blacksburg,VA
I like WRAL from yesterday….2-3” is still my bar for Raleigh…will be very happy with that.Latest NES predictions. Lowered quite a bit on the Boom and Bust maps. Last night my area was 5-19”. Now it’s 1-12”. I believe that the triangle area and east should get bumped up more today. Triad might win the dry slot award???
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Copy that. Good sign.
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Mike said last night that was before he saw the dry slots disappearing
wow
Member
Models can only do so much. Time to now cast.
disassociated_vort
Member
noticed that on radar - looking forward for this event to start! little bit of blue sky outside right now.
imo those birdies haven't been chirping like they did last week. maybe the birds have access to that euro AI model and have begun to write this one off too.
Anyone got the GRAF? Local futurecast looking money
To be honest with you, I haven’t seen any birds flying around here all week. My wife said something about it last night when we were going on our walk.
Good morning, all.
I wake up a bit aggravated for N. Georgia this AM. The overnight models have ticked east with the precip here rather than an expansion westward as hoped for. At this point, while I'd love to see a reversal of this overnight trend to bring Atlanta better into the game, now I'm hoping we don't lose this any further east. The hoped-for west-central Tennessee to Macon track of the 500MB now appears completely off the table.
Hopefully, trends come back westward today now that the main players are well within the ROAB network.
I wake up a bit aggravated for N. Georgia this AM. The overnight models have ticked east with the precip here rather than an expansion westward as hoped for. At this point, while I'd love to see a reversal of this overnight trend to bring Atlanta better into the game, now I'm hoping we don't lose this any further east. The hoped-for west-central Tennessee to Macon track of the 500MB now appears completely off the table.
Hopefully, trends come back westward today now that the main players are well within the ROAB network.
NWS calling for 3-7 tonight and 3-7 tomorrow for us just outside of Gatlinburg. Still some snow on the ground from Sunday. Beautiful up here. Look forward to the OBS thread. Happy for Mitch and all the Carolina folks. 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Going to be fighting dry air all day with such light dbz. Not my storm anyways, expecting 1-3 inches. Light snow now instead of flurries
Enjoy your time!!
broken025
Member
Don’t see something like this very often around here. Looking forward to this weekend.
Very heavy bands dumping 4am on hrrr
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ICON point and click maps have 17" IMBY 
Xlhunter3
Member
HRRR already has a closed 528 contour at 06z Saturday. A tick west too.
thanks guys awesome job. great work. helpful
MotoWeatherman
Meteorologist
OK...what's that overlay your using with the obs?
iGRXY
Member
HRRR definitely better vs it's 6z run. Better ULL placement and tilt.
BrickTamland
Member
Even when the GFS, Euro, NAM, ICON and HRRR all showing 10+ inches here?
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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If you have a login with AllisonHouse for RadarScope you can get station plots to pop up.
iGRXY
Member
A little slower but definitely west of 6z and with better tilt
packfan98
Moderator
A lot drier at the surface so far through hr28
NCPROGRAMMER
Member
Better tilt for who? Semantics. Please be detailed, because what is best for some is not better for all.
Euro isn't showing 10". EPS is 3-4" across the triangle and its been trending down.
Usually dividing snowfall maps by 2 works out too.
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I havent looked at the means yet but the ARW control run on the SREF just had its best run of this event
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Kylo, do you honestly believe this is a 10:1 column? At this point, thats being just a little intellectually dishonest if you do. Not an attack, just an observation.
I think with this set up and higher ratio snow you at least take these totals and times them by 1.5X to 2X in higher driven rates
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Snow showers out ahead of the front in Kentucky already...dont think that was on any models this early??
Man, I really woke up to some panic. This is just going to be one of those storms where somebody expecting 4 gets 8 and another person expecting 8 gets 4. And you’re not gonna know til it’s on the ground.
HRRRRR
NBAcentel
Member
06z was neutrally tilted, that’s more positively tilted, which is a bit worse
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Look at that death band smashing through MBY at high noon tomorrow. lets go!!!
BrickTamland
Member
That's with 10:1 ratios. Need to double that with this storm. All of those models with the Kuchera have at least 10 inches for Raleigh.