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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
In ran away during the last storm. Moved 100 miles north every model run for the last 72 hours
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It will be moving some by tonight, not like last week. But you can sense it, why you been seeing more coastal enhancement today. If this thing would hug the coastline up to the bottom of the delmarva,tidewater. Be historic in enc.
 
RAH smells something here. They’re in on this coming a bit west.

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KyloG said:
I dont think this is ticking north…it’s remarkable how stubborn that 50/50 is. It just won’t move out…never seen anything like it. Every single winter storm we’ve ever had that has lifted out quicker than modeled as we approached go time. But not this time…

View attachment 191465View attachment 191466
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It's amazing what a real block will do. We're so used to not seeing one, that things seem to behave strangely to us when one is actually present.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's amazing what a real block will do. We're so used to not seeing one, that things seem to behave strangely to us when one is actually present.
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Never thought I’d see the day people would cheer for the 50/50 to move out so they could get snow
 
RBR71 said:
I just realized though, it got the .5 qpf almost always to Va line. Can you run a trend gif? I can't figure out how to make that happen on SV yet
View attachment 191461
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With ratios that’s probably 6-12” for most of NC lol. Pretty insane and something I wasn’t expecting!
 
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I'd have to look deeper into it, however at first glance it looks like HRRR produces some convective snowsqualls out ahead of the main snowfall, interesting. If this can occur then perhaps thundersnow is possible late friday night across the CAE, possibly part of the GSP region. Assuming snowfall rates of 15:1 or even 20:1 (Extremely rare in these areas) you could be talking about these bands single-handedly dumping over an inch or more of snow.
 
NCwx1992 said:
View attachment 191483triangle area that was dry slotted on a couple model runs earlier today, now NC bullseye on 0z HRRR. this is gonna be such an interesting one to see unfold
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This would be so heartbreaking for me. Less than an inch for my backyard while literally 5 miles to my northeast they get a 3-4 inch lollipop.
 
Serious question.... are we buying the HRRR yet? HUGE intrusion of dry air in the southwestern section of this.... basically in south central to southwestern SC... the HRRR is cutting the totals from 5-6 inches on Euro/4-5 on GFS to 0.9 inches on HRRR. That's a huge bust on the globals if so
 
NBAcentel said:
Mid level warm front trending NW on the hrrr… does it continue to do so ? It’s a pretty big forcing mechanism for the precipitation. Wonder if it keeps jogging NW View attachment 191480View attachment 191482
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That dark green line is where the 0 deg C line is located 95% of the time with these - not out in the ocean. Don’t take this one for granted folks

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ducketta27 said:
Serious question.... are we buying the HRRR yet? HUGE intrusion of dry air in the southwestern section of this.... basically in south central to southwestern SC... the HRRR is cutting the totals from 5-6 inches on Euro/4-5 on GFS to 0.9 inches on HRRR. That's a huge bust on the globals if so
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It basically takes Augusta from 4-5 inch consensus from the globals to less than 1 inch on the HRRR
 
LovingGulfLows said:
This would be so heartbreaking for me. Less than an inch for my backyard while literally 5 miles to my northeast they get a 3-4 inch lollipop.
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No doubt, in Georgia, there will be elation and heartbreak mere miles apart. The HRRR was the first model to put the 850MB meso low deform band squarely over MBY and delivered 5". Most have that band further east.

Radar watching will be at a premium Saturday AM.
 
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