Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[BullCityWx]

Not to be "that guy" - do you have a zoom out of the Carolinas NBM?

Sure thing

 

[NCSNOW]

Tracks from Cowpens to right here. Notch futher north and makes a diff in mby

 

[Sctvman]

Winter storm watch for CHS

 

[Webberweather53]

i'm not mad

View attachment 191254

For folks in Raleigh the million dollar question is, which one of these forces is going to ultimately win out here?

The subsidence/dry slot from your upper low to the west transferring to the coastal out east, or the low-mid level warm advection from the coastal cranking up?

Because the answer to that question will give you two completely different outcomes in Raleigh. One involves maybe as little as a couple inches or so of snow (dry slot) the other you could get a foot+. Not much room for anything in between either.

 

[trackersacker]

Not to be "that guy" - do you have a zoom out of the Carolinas NBM?

 

[rburrel2]

 

[BullCityWx]

So if we assume a 19:1 ratio(keep seeing that on BUFKIT) then you'd take that .5 QPF at the airport and multiply that by 19 and you get 9.5". If you go more conservative(and I think this is super conservative) with 15:1, it's still 7.5".

 

[superjames1992]

Super glad to see the AIFS "stop the bleeding" for us Triangle folks!

 

[NCSNOW]

Well we ( Asheboro-GBoro) can take the Euro AIFs out of the under 6 inch column and kick it into the 7-11 column. See what we can do with the euro op here in a few. Have to have the ULL come in hugging state line over Jimmys house, not down near UGA's dog house in Athens.

 

[iGRXY]

The EURO is going to be better lol

 

[Bigedd09]

May be a decent run.

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[iGRXY]

 

[ducketta27]

Well we ( Asheboro-GBoro) can take the Euro AIFs out of the under 6 inch column and kick it into the 7-11 column. See what we can do with the euro op here in a few. Have to have the ULL come in hugging state line over Jimmys house, not down near UGA's dog house in Athens

Those in AGS/ATL want the opposite here!

 

[NBAcentel]

Euro a smidge east with the ULL

 

[jackendrickwx]

Euro with a Cola special. Better for Ral. Worse for ILM

 

[ATLCT]

Seems early. But it does seem like a reasonable shot (maybe 40-50%?) for ATL to get at least a dusting/half-inch. With roads this cold I guess that could mean some slipperiness? IDK - still seems like FFC is jumping the gun. Guess they want to get ahead of things with Friday being tomorrow?

Yeah, they do have Atlanta at about 50% chance of impacts, up from about 30% yesterday

 

[BrickTamland]

Euro at 48

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah, they do have Atlanta at about 50% chance of impacts, up from about 30% yesterday

It's an old graphic pre-watch. Grid forecast here jumped from 1.1 inches to 2.5.

 

[SnowNiner]

I did not expect them to be so bullish. I wonder which models they are leaning towards for this.

I think they expect the coastal to bomb right where it's supposed to. Climatology matters here. I would be shocked if CLT does better than Raleigh, IMO.

 

[bouncycorn]

AIGEFS 12z is absolutely bonkers for ATL

 

[HailCore]

Euro with a Cola special. Better for Ral. Worse for ILM
View attachment 191268

Much further west with the snow shield than 00Z. As we have seen over the past few days, the 06z and 18z runs always seem more juiced up, but clearly the westward trends on those "off-hours" have transferred into the 12Z/00Z data by a substantial amount. For western areas, this should be considered a win/good trend as it appears now.

 

[Brandon10]

Now the EURO joins the bombogenesis off Hatteras/Cape Lookout

 

[SnowedIn1]

I was anticipating a WWA at best over here so I’m pleasantly surprised.

Even down here to Mcdonough....that WSW was a huge surprise!

 

[superjames1992]

12z Euro is cranking good for many across central NC / upstate SC / NE GA mid-day Saturday. 2m temp is 14 in Raleigh, 13 in Greensboro. Excited to see heavy snow at noon with temperatures in the low to mid teens. Can it happen?

 

[tempo47]

Euro at 48

View attachment 191269

Looks like canadian from 2 days ago

 

[iGRXY]

 

[CaryWx]

She's cranking!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Dream setup. Peepaw type snowstorm if we can hold on

 

[iGRXY]

Monster run again. EURO is locking in on the Upstate

 

[superjames1992]

This precip hole around ILM on the 12z Euro is insane.

 

[Bigedd09]

View attachment 191275
Monster run again. EURO is looking in on the Upstate

Is it just me or did the pink shift northeast a bit?


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[NCSNOW]

Better Tilt, helps negate the crossing of UGA house mentioned earlier

 

[BrickTamland]

 

[superjames1992]

Moyock JACKPOT. 1' snows happen there with regularity.

 

[Ross]

This precip hole around ILM on the 12z Euro is insane.

luck of the draw type noise that won't be replicated in 18z

 

[ForsythSnow]

View attachment 191275
Monster run again. EURO is looking in on the Upstate

Still looks good for N GA too. It'll be interesting to see how we hold but it seems for certain based on 12Z N GA is much in the game for this now. The dynamics of this will get interesting

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

A tick east and a tick more positive tilt as the ULL passes through N Alabama/Georgia. Mostly noise at this point. Stay tuned to your regularly scheduled program for satellite and radar entertainment tomorrow night and Saturday.

 

[rburrel2]

AIGEFS 12z is absolutely bonkers for ATL View attachment 191270

1/10th of an inch of liquid on the mean for Moyock? That's new.

 

[Packsox03]

For folks in Raleigh the million dollar question is, which one of these forces is going to ultimately win out here?

The subsidence/dry slot from your upper low to the west transferring to the coastal out east, or the low-mid level warm advection from the coastal cranking up?

Because the answer to that question will give you two completely different outcomes in Raleigh. One involves maybe as little as a couple inches or so of snow (dry slot) the other you could get a foot+. Not much room for anything in between either.

Nigh impossible to forecast as well. It’s easy to go with a 3-6/4-8 type of middle ground but typically one side wins. Additionally, a million+ people live in this area

 

[Downeastnc]

luck of the draw type noise that won't be replicated in 18z

Yeah right now folks need to focus on just two things the location and strength of the SLP off the coast and the track of the ULL, everything else is just noise until go time....this will be a case where we nowcast the bands that setup and the exact location of those wont be easy to pin down even 12 hr out much less 36-40 hr out like we are now.