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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Rain Cold said:
I honestly think it's not something that's too complicated. The tilt, track, and strength of the ULL has varied each run across every single model suite. One run, neutral tilt, stronger. Next run, negative tilt, weaker. Next run positive tilt, stronger, farther south. The snowfall maps reflect these very minor changes. You can watch the loops side by side with the snowfall output and easily see it. If we can get consensus around that, we'll have a good idea about the western areas. The eastern zones are going to be impacted by the handoff from the ULL to the coastal and the location at which the coastal bombs. I favor the Gulf Stream idea because of the heat flux and super duper cold core rotating over. Maybe that doesn't happen this way, but this seems most logical. That said, if we see convection all over the western Atlantic and lows forming all over the place, maybe that muddies the waters, and very little snow occurs in east-central areas. I don't see that, in the end. But it will be fun to watch unfold.
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Outside chance...and this is a very outside notion think on my part--

The coastal has a fujiwhara behavior and models struggling with that as it is highly uncommon? Ross alluded to this earlier and seems I read on some potential predictive forecast last night there could be a "blizzard loop" of the surface LP path. As mentioned this is not your typical ULL either and it's effects on the developing coastal seem all over the place attm. Just speculating
 
maxwx said:
View attachment 191231
absolutely golden run from gfs ai for atlanta, another tick west from 06z
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Correct looking at temps north of I-20 thru ATL your looking at .10 to .20 qpf during temps in the upper to low 20s... That paints a swath of 1-3 inches of snow depending on rations thru ATL and of course more east
 
Just looking at the 200 and 300 Milibar heights between the 6z and 12z GFS for example. I don’t see much difference in the jet stream or timing. Why is one negative tilt and the next neutral to neutral/positive?
 
Rain Cold said:
I honestly think it's not something that's too complicated. The tilt, track, and strength of the ULL has varied each run across every single model suite. One run, neutral tilt, stronger. Next run, negative tilt, weaker. Next run positive tilt, stronger, farther south. The snowfall maps reflect these very minor changes. You can watch the loops side by side with the snowfall output and easily see it. If we can get consensus around that, we'll have a good idea about the western areas. The eastern zones are going to be impacted by the handoff from the ULL to the coastal and the location at which the coastal bombs. I favor the Gulf Stream idea because of the heat flux and super duper cold core rotating over. Maybe that doesn't happen this way, but this seems most logical. That said, if we see convection all over the western Atlantic and lows forming all over the place, maybe that muddies the waters, and very little snow occurs in east-central areas. I don't see that, in the end. But it will be fun to watch unfold.
Click to expand...
I wonder how long it will take to figure out. Seems RAH is going with the blend of models for their forecast amounts. It's hard because the public wants specifics. But this may be a deal where we might not know until it actually unfolds. Could be nothing or a foot of snow here. It would be nice if the local TV mets could tell the public that but you know it wouldn't fly.
 
BrickTamland said:
I wonder how long it will take to figure out. Seems RAH is going with the blend of models for their forecast amounts. It's hard because the public wants specifics. But this may be a deal where we might not know until it actually unfolds. Could be nothing or a foot of snow here. It would be nice if the local TV mets could tell the public that but you know it wouldn't fly.
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I think all will be as conservative as they can be until they have all the info they can possibly get! Forecast totals subject to change until Friday night or later I would guess!
 
malak05 said:
As we know 2+ inches and super cold 20 degree temps can cause nightmares in ATL haha... I definitely am happy about this hopefully it forces the org running my daughter cheer comp to official postpone don't need dealing with that potential mess
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Yeah 2" can be extremely impactful at temps in the low 20s.


By the way, it looks like we're 'neighbors', hoping we can get some snow out this way!
 
bouncycorn said:
Yeah 2" can be extremely impactful at temps in the low 20s.


By the way, it looks like we're 'neighbors', hoping we can get some snow out this way!
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Make it happen for us bouncy.. Every run I keep hoping for a westward tug for some accumulation this far over..
 
xshare said:
Seems early. But it does seem like a reasonable shot (maybe 40-50%?) for ATL to get at least a dusting/half-inch. With roads this cold I guess that could mean some slipperiness? IDK - still seems like FFC is jumping the gun. Guess they want to get ahead of things with Friday being tomorrow?
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I was anticipating a WWA at best over here so I’m pleasantly surprised.
 
CaryWx said:
Outside chance...and this is a very outside notion think on my part--

The coastal has a fujiwhara behavior and models struggling with that as it is highly uncommon? Ross alluded to this earlier and seems I read on some potential predictive forecast last night there could be a "blizzard loop" of the surface LP path. As mentioned this is not your typical ULL either and it's effects on the developing coastal seem all over the place attm. Just speculating
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Often times you see the slp jog west as it's captured by the mid-level, and temporarily stall as the system stacks vertically and occludes. The 0z Euro is a near textbook example of this evolution between 72-84hrs, ~150 miles east of HAT.
 
bouncycorn said:
FFC just extended Winter Storm Watch to Atlanta (???)

View attachment 191250
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Wow! I'm surprised they issued it as far west as they did. When it came over my Alexa device, I presumed my county would be just barely within the watch. I'm sure part of the abundance of caution is the cold temperatures that, while technically part of the criteria, there is no doubt that even an inch or two will have travel impacts.
 
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