BrickTamland
Member
The rates on the GFS are crazy.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Short term trend on GFS with height line over Pennsylvania. That’s the secret sauce (50/50 low trending southwest) in trying to keep this from edging north
Brandon10
Member
Is anyone smarter than me believing the track over Hatteras and then stall? Maybe related to the 50/50 low?
BrickTamland
Member
30 hours of snow for central NC on the GFS.
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
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- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
Max is 31.5" on the weatherbell maps through 96. Still rolling.
iGRXY
Member
What's crazy is the globals are likely under doing the QPF from the ULL portion of this and we are still getting 4-8" on them right now in the upstate
GFS precip trends past 36 hours...past couple of runs ticked south.
I do think this reverts to what the EPS and EPS-AI are showing...which isn't going out on a limb.
I do think this reverts to what the EPS and EPS-AI are showing...which isn't going out on a limb.
Cary_Snow95
Member
The 50/50 moving southwest allows this to just sit and deepen off Hatteras 
Cary_Snow95
Member
So far the trend at 12z is more coastal influence
wow
Member
in other words.. a lot of precip. Widespread 12"+ across the state.
iGRXY
Member
Already closing off
NCWeatherhound
Member
The 12Z GFS just can't help itself. That slowdown off Hatteras, if it verifies, would produce 30-plus hours of snow over Central NC. Looks like 3 feet in northern Johnston County. 
Bigedd09
Member
BrickTamland
Member
Stormsfury
Member
It is showing an very rapid occlusion.
bncho
Member
starting to look like i might be out of this one. but yall folks deserve this. all i ask is that you post some pictures!
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- Location
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Legitimate blizzard conditions from RDU eastward on this run.
iGRXY
Member
This CMC run is going to be big. Stronger and further west ULL coming down into Tennessee
wow
Member
Still way too early to nit pick precip.. GFS went from a little over 1" qpf to a little under. Noise. Minor differences in ULL strength, track, and tilt will make all the difference.
- Joined
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- Reaction score
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- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
wow
Member
CMC more west with the lobe, 50/50 holding steady.. this should like close to the RGEM
Oh, Canada. Diving SE.
christian mccaffry model is about to go nuts lol
wow
Member
Exact copy of the RGEM. Beast.
EDIT.. actually a hair stronger with a 525mb .. 4 contour cutoff!
EDIT.. actually a hair stronger with a 525mb .. 4 contour cutoff!
Makeitsnow
Member
canadian drops the 500mb down to columbus
iGRXY
Member
Sweet Jesus the CMC is smoking the entire state of SC and the pee dee region is getting hammered at 84.
Just starting
oh ****
broken025
Member
Woof. Still going here.
BrickTamland
Member
Canadian looks like a big dog.
So why is this bowling ball at 500 mb not producing any more precip to the north and west? I know the surface low moves over the Atlantic but it’s still possible that we would see some convective precip north and west of this ULL or am I reading all of this wrong
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Still going
