packfan98
Moderator
Any chance you could do a trend loop? Looks like the sample size wasn't large enough for this model because it for sure doesn't look like it's leading the way. The GFS suite has been locked in for a couple of days.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
Seems like the the major players are already being sampled over land. The Baja area energy that feeds in underneath is approaching land right now as well.
Iirc @bouncycorn said once that the AI models don't always slowly shift but if changes arise, make a big jump and kinda lock in. Something along those lines, anyway, seems Google AI did that. One big adjustment and locked, maybe?
yeah probably, its just really really funny that the GFS was closer than it
Cary_Snow95
Member
The handling of the coastal is intriguing. Rather than the coastal pumping moisture inland it seems we are getting a hybrid setup where the ULL starts to interact with the coastal and enhance the moisture stretching back towards the deepening low. The obvious fail here is if webbers dry slot appears and this is more of a handoff rather than an enhancement.
so back 
Cary_Snow95
Member
This trend of precip shows a precip max developing over western nc and another in eastern nc. A steadier but slightly less amount over central nc seems reasonable. Hopefully the models continue to latch onto this enhanced look rather than precip maxes handing off to one another
Need the coastal to form nc/sc border or south. If it forms due east of us it has to go super bomb to wrap all the way back in time before it's too far north
December 2010 was an example of a "hand off". Different setup, whereas Charlotte and southwestward should do better this time, but this drier zone can happen.
Mahomeless
Member
Expect continued westward trends with the ULL and expanded qpf fields back into AL/GA. This may continue until verification…time will tell.
packfan98
Moderator
Interesting that the changes doesn’t really effect the coastal path much. I wonder if it will jump today?
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Based on? A hunch?
Just checking in how is AL/GA looking with more recent runs, do we have a better chance now or about the same?
The euro and gfs ai models are showing an initial dry slot over the Sandhills north atm. It backfills but initially is slotted.
Enjoy flurries or pixie dust snow showers at best.
I'm fairly certain, unless something changes, you can shift that east and slightly NE about 2-3 rows of counties.
Brandon10
Member
It seems like models are coming into 2 general consensus points
1. ULL is going to produce a decent snow in western NC and SC. This seems to be happening regardless
2. The global models and short range for the most part are showing a low pressure developing to the south and riding very close to the gulf stream. This SHOULD keep most of the area snow. OBX may see some mixing but the question is: how fast does it bomb? Faster bombing means more QPF and a faster influx of cold air at all levels on the Western Side. GFS is most extreme with this, EURO/RGM/NAM/Google and even the ICON now seem to be similar but not as amped as the GFS. I do have questions regarding the GFS solution of this low bombing and meandering off of NC/VA for 12-18 hours.
We are getting closer to go time. Todays 12z runs will be very telling.
1. ULL is going to produce a decent snow in western NC and SC. This seems to be happening regardless
2. The global models and short range for the most part are showing a low pressure developing to the south and riding very close to the gulf stream. This SHOULD keep most of the area snow. OBX may see some mixing but the question is: how fast does it bomb? Faster bombing means more QPF and a faster influx of cold air at all levels on the Western Side. GFS is most extreme with this, EURO/RGM/NAM/Google and even the ICON now seem to be similar but not as amped as the GFS. I do have questions regarding the GFS solution of this low bombing and meandering off of NC/VA for 12-18 hours.
We are getting closer to go time. Todays 12z runs will be very telling.
Pilotwx
Member
Most models are showing the foothills escarpment drier because of NW flow. We will see if ULL fills in that area on later runs.
Mahomeless
Member
Based on:
-Global models inability to properly place ULL’s
-2.5 days worth of westward trends that coincide with how these setups dig way further west and south as they approach more often than not
-NAM and RGEM already showing this with expanded qpf fields when they are normally very dry at this range
-Increased heights off the east coast
-Trends showing increased interaction with energy in the SW
Need more?
ATLHokie
Member
When you take the average of huge storms and zeros, like the NWS often does with the uncertainty at this stage, the 'forecast' is sometimes the least likely to happen.
yep, been watching that precip divot on the models
We're still looking good. The AI models are not great for my location over to your place. But the GIS ai did bump up the QPF some for us. Hopefully that can continue at 12z:
Honestly, 5-6" would be a win for me.
NBAcentel
Member
Won’t be long the hrrr gets into range… 
Tsappfrog20
Member
NCWeatherhound
Member
We're used to it. If the warm nose doesn't get us, the dry slot will.
Well it's slight but even on the 3 run trend of the NBM you can start to see amounts increase W/SW and the dry slot slowly inch north. Subtle but there
Wow, GFS AI with 0.2" up to Atlanta. I'm not even gonna do ratio math, but that's a decent shift that snuck up on me.
And other models as well. We (weather weenies) always focus on the worse models and the worse possible outcome. Which is part of the game.
Makeitsnow
Member
Considering the 0z Canadian had the snow not ending in eastern areas until sat after 0z, the rgem is a big hit for north ga. I hope the 12z run is consistent.6Z RGEM, still snowing over north GA.
carolinaman
Member
This is life along 95/the fall line. It always happens here. There are very few wintry weather events I can remember where MBY wasn't either in a precip hole or along the 10 mile wide razor edge transition of snow/sleet/rain. Or we will get sleet with a light dusting at the end of the event while points 20 miles north/west get all snow. I'm hopeful for a good performer out of this system but also trying to keep expectations realistic.
I grew up in Coats so I know all too well! Still a lot to change possibly between now and Sat morn!
I’d be very wary about the crazy high qpf of the last several GFS over C and E NC. It had 2-4” of qpf for the previous storm in many areas like ATL and much of N GA ended up with only ~0.75”. I’d at least cut the GFS’ in half. Besides we know it is an inferior model in general. Compare the GFS crazy high qpf to the other models and it isn’t really close for the most part:
GFS way out on limb:
Euro: way less than GFS
CMC: much less than GFS except within 75 miles of coast:
ICON: way less than GFS
UKMET: way less than others/likely way underdone
I’d favor going with the middle ground combo of Euro and Icon as of now for overall qpf amounts and favor the Euro’s C NC for the heaviest at this point.
I expect that to drop some more (especially for us) once the GFS comes down to reality.
The dry slot (lesser amounts) near our area though looks real on several model outputs now.
Brandon10
Member
Especially since the GFS output is the Low basically stalling/meandering off NC/VA for 12-18 hours. No other model show is getting captured. They show gradual NE movement not a crawl
Probably correct but most of the western piedmont is from the ull, correct? The qpf letdown has been from surface lows. If we can get the neutral to negative tilt to occur, I would expect decent returns.
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