rburrel2
Member
Rgem has the event starting here Friday evening… 60hrs out.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Bigedd09
Member
GEFS holds steady
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Looks terrible.
Fountainguy97
Member
Latest models. They are in good agreement with the ULL energy diving down into SC/NC. Lots of LSL enhancement too. The coastal is the big question. GFS is the standout with coastal development.
Weathernext also likes the sliding energy as well.
Weathernext also likes the sliding energy as well.
rburrel2
Member
Weathernext had the footprint nailed down on Monday.
Here’s bouncycorn’s map from then.
Here’s bouncycorn’s map from then.
GFS AI has been steady in one direction for the last 48 hours or so. No crazy ticks one way or the other. Just a gradual increase in moisture across the Carolinas. 
rburrel2
Member
Also a clear trend away from quick coastal development the last 3 runs.
Total 10:1 off the AIGFS 06.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
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packfan98
Moderator
National Blend of models shaping up nicely.
packfan98
Moderator
That’s a large area of .75” and I would imagine that would equate to around 10” of accumulation. Very Nice!
Shaggy
Member
This should be what everyone is striving to see. We don't need a 970mb low right off the coast we just need to see increased moisture feeding back into the ULL.
packfan98
Moderator
6z AIFS is a little less amped
packfan98
Moderator
A little better for Ga and SC
AI guidance doesn't like the coastal scenario as much.
WXinCanton
Member
6Z RGEM, still snowing over north GA.
You can roll the dice with just the ULL. But I fear it will leave some with table scraps further east you get from western region. I'd a whole lot rather take my chances with the coastal if I'm east of Triad.
GFS has been consistent for like 7-8 straight runs
WXinCanton
Member
Here is the end of the 6Z NAM, it was just getting going over AL, and N GA
packfan98
Moderator
I can’t believe what I’m seeing. We got great trends yesterday and not only do we have the qpf and cold but we have truly high ratios and a cold ground to absolutely maximize accums. This could be the one we’ve waited years for (esp us in clt)
Getting very interesting for a lot more of us with this thing. That 06z NAM was hammering us over this way. Just keep shifting that ULL a little more SW. High is 27 Saturday, this won’t take much to cause chaos.
packfan98
Moderator
Looks to be a little better 6z Eiro run with more widespread precip for areas further west. More maps come shortly.
packfan98
Moderator
Bigedd09
Member
I feel like this is the time frame where some models may go a little dry just to come back in the next couple of days
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packfan98
Moderator
That is weird. You would have to lean towards the setup more than the precip map here. Keep this look and maybe the precip fills in more in subsequent runs or the shorter term hi-res modeling.
iGRXY
Member
I continue to think you’ll see models trend wetter and wetter especially over the western carolinas.
carolinachaos
Member
What part of 95 are you referring to, because in the Pee Dee of SC. Florence to be exact it looks like there is moisture.
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iGRXY
Member
wow
Member
With a 987 low right off Hatteras I'd expect the GFS type of precip map.
packfan98
Moderator
packfan98
Moderator
6z AIFS Ens 10:1 snow map
Brandon10
Member
Intersted to see EPS. IMO dry in eastern NC
Bigedd09
Member
6z AIGS Ensemble
Looks like a decent shift west compared to 0z
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The decreased precip over 95 on the Euro has to be either it is not bombing quick enough offshore (which looks odd given the depth of the low). Or, it is the convective feedback issue a number of Mets have mentioned here.