Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[NBAcentel]

GEFSAI throwing back a .7 QPF finger all the way to Charlotte

 

[LukeBarrette]

GEFSAI throwing back a .7 QPF finger all the way to Charlotte View attachment 190413

An AI model honking on ULL stuff is extremely impressive. It just means that the short range models will be printing some pretty things here soon.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

An AI model honking on ULL stuff is extremely impressive. It just means that the short range models will be printing some pretty things here soon.

Yeah. Seems with the AI’s, their forecast is revolving heavily around that. Hard to ignore right now

 

[GaWx]

UKMET wants to be dr. NO so bad View attachment 190406View attachment 190407

0Z UKMET has more snow many areas than 12Z, including your area and has snow way down in Brunswick for the first time on any UK:

 

[bouncycorn]

Nice trend

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

y’all wanna see something spooky tho

Edit: Idiot. That’s bc it’s including last storm

 

[Tarheel1]

So the 18z GFS had a low pop in the gulf as well??

 

[anc.py]

Euro it appears stronger with the trough as well as it being further west.

 

[saielA10462]

Noticed the AI models particularly the AIFS get different data on 06z and 18z. You can watch the QPF trend oscillate on NC but not move much and only go up and down on amounts on the past day, it’s very interesting

 

[Ross]

View attachment 190421

Euro it appears stronger with the trough as well as it being further west.

whew, liking this so far

 

[NBAcentel]

Seems like the AIFS is biting down at this one. Maybe 1/2 more sudden snaps ?

 

[NBAcentel]

Oh my

 

[wow]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

 

[GaWx]

Watch the Euro’s W trend: probably good for some and bad for others especially assuming this continues

 

[anc.py]

Watch the Euro’s W trend:

View attachment 190427

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 190431

How far west is this going to trend over the next 3 days, if any more? Nobody knows!

 

[Stormsfury]

Watch the Euro’s W trend: probably good for some and bad for others especially assuming this continues

View attachment 190427

My goodness, yall are on top of this run.
This looks like incoming to me.

 

[wow]

Same track but stronger ULL

 

[GaWx]

2m anomalies as of 4PM Saturday:

 

[wow]

Qpf is actually much less compared to 18z

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Oh my god upstate getting buried! Ice pixels along the coast. Dynamic move from the euro here wow

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Qpf is actually much less compared to 18z

View attachment 190436

That looks GFSAI like to me….

 

[Stormsfury]

Snow breaking out rapidly on the ULL at hr 90 in SC.

 

[Ross]

Qpf is actually much less compared to 18z

View attachment 190436

tilt was a little worse

not terrible, plenty of time to sharpen things up

 

[NBAcentel]

Pretty classic track here for the Piedmont

 

[albertwilsonjr]

Oh my god upstate getting buried! Ice pixels along the coast. Dynamic move from the euro here wow

Let’s see it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The way it was ripping on the Atari panels I thought this would be higher but what a run

 

[Stormsfury]

Qpf is actually much less compared to 18z

View attachment 190436

Developed a little late and primarily upper low/mesolow/trough extension from the surface low arching across the Carolinas.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

That looks GFSAI like to me….

 

[Stormsfury]

For an occlusion bomb right off the NC coast, the NW and W shield looks anemic. There should be way more with that bombogenesis IMHO.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

you get an idea of where it wants to go when you start getting the rain and ZR signals inland off the coast

 

[Packsox03]

2m anomalies as of 4PM Saturday:

View attachment 190434

RDU may have a sub 20F max temperature on Sunday if it snows

 

[GaWx]

Trend on Euro of snowfall: axis of heaviest moving west

 

[Ollie Williams]

I’m fine with the Euro. The synoptics look great at the upper levels and run to run changes have felt like noise rather than noticeable trends. I think the globals struggle with convective feedback so I would take QPF with a grain of salt because the globals are going to struggle to resolve it.

 

[Tarheel1]

Snow breaking out rapidly on the ULL at hr 90 in SC.
View attachment 190438

This gonna be a much colder version of 3-1-09 for the Carolinas!! Thundersnow!??

 

[griteater]

Don't know where we'll end up come game time, but at this moment, the GFS is the farther north outlier. It is simply stronger with the closed upper low / more toward negative tilt with the trough. GFS is the last one in each loop.

 

[Packsox03]

Synoptically, euro is perfect for popping a coastal in time for NC. Same sfc low track

 

[HDGator]

Trend on Euro of snowfall: axis of heaviest moving west
View attachment 190446

It's a trend on the same theme. This is a central Carolinas storm. Three days out let the big dog hunt.

 

[BullCityWx]