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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

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12z EPS doesn’t look bad


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There is a lot of GFS bashing (rightfully so, I guess). I understand there is a general exasperation when it comes to the GFS. My question relates to its specific strengths and weaknesses rather than its overall performance. Is there anything in the GFS's history that might point to it handling this specific setup (Miller A, coastal bombs, etc.) better than others?
 
Hard to get into details or specific scenarios yet but one of those possibilities is a potential upper low to coastal transfer.

Those kind of setups can get real tricky sometimes for central NC especially. Oftentimes when you have one of these transfer, you will get 2 maximums in snowfall in NC. One over the western Piedmont and the other over the east-central coastal plain, with a dry slot in between over the eastern Piedmont (think Jan 2003 or Jan 3-4 2018). The globals almost never sniff out these details either.

It’s too early to have much confidence in something like this happening of course, but it’s something else to just keep in the back of your mind when you’re looking at the models the next few days.
 
One possibility is that Lee trough gets spinning enough with the 850/925mb turning to form a swirl of precip and that pivots east southeast from the upstate towards charlotte/Columbia… we’ve had set ups like this before where that action got organized and absolutely cranked more than any models showed. I can’t remember the dates.
 
Good news is, there is still plenty of time for this to change. Bad news is, it almost always never changes for the positive. I am not educated on the mechanics of a storm to make a prediction on anything but I know well enough by now that you really only need be hopeful when models are showing the event within 2 days of go time.
 
A big key to this setup is slowing down the northern stream wave enough to let the southern stream disturbance get out in front of it when they phase. This causes your wave to tilt negatively much more quickly, amps your coastal low up, and throws more heavy snow back further to the north & west, etc.

If we can get the northern stream wave to slow enough and force our upper trough to go neutrally tilted before it crosses the apps, I think we’re looking at a real big dog event in NC. In a perfect world, I’d like to see us do that over central TN like the 12z GFS shows, but beggars can’t be choosers.

Guidance is generally trending in this direction w/ a slower northern stream wave and quicker tilt which I would like to see continue the next day or two
 
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