Yeah. I knew I’d seen this storm before. Long way to go on this one 
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Agreed. Let’s be honest, we know there isn’t gonna be widespread 2-4 foot totals in central and eastern NC. Still a lot of potential for a widespread big dog
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Btownheel
Member
It’s all about that 50/50 low. If it moves on out we’re going to get absolutely creamed. That’s what goofus has as the different variable.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Keep digging West come on... Trying to recall the December 2010 Christmas storm here's a good writeup
Basically the CMC/NAM/GFS have shown some of this if all parts of GA want measurable snow can't be too dependent on the ULL throwing it back especially the further west you go you hope for the initially build up of a wave of moisture as it start coming down right before it swings
Basically the CMC/NAM/GFS have shown some of this if all parts of GA want measurable snow can't be too dependent on the ULL throwing it back especially the further west you go you hope for the initially build up of a wave of moisture as it start coming down right before it swings
Watch 540 and 546dm in Canada, notice how they are farther E when the Canadian was going south and bombing but have relaxed so the system has leaked E, need more thumb ridge
Funny enough, both you and Jimmy have mentioned these 2010 and 2018 storms as having some similar characteristics for this setup. It snowed in Sav in both those years but not during either of the specific storms you both mentioned. Kind of speaks to how this might end up being one of these once in a 7-8 year winter with the current pattern in place.Keep digging West come on... Trying to recall the December 2010 Christmas storm here's a good writeup
Basically the CMC/NAM/GFS have shown some of this if all parts of GA want measurable snow can't be too dependent on the ULL throwing it back especially the further west you go you hope for the initially build up of a wave of moisture as it start coming down right before it swings
Stormsfury
Member
i'm also thinking about how the aifs "jumps" sometimes... wonder if we're due for one
I had forgotten about that, on how the AIs can have some sort of interpretation jump vs other models which have that as well as jumps from inputs/initialization or do I have this incorrect.
Fascinating to me how just a couple degrees of tilt in a system can create huge changes down the road. For last week, it was the difference between a raging snowstorm and getting an icy mess. This storm is no different, but ironically a little tilt in the back of that trough, just like last week, will be the difference between a few flurries and getting molly-walloped! We should not be surprised the models are having difficulty.
iGRXY
Member
Still feel good that the ULL produces for a lot of people west of I95 and probably overperforms towards the upstate and I77 crew. It does appear to be locking in on that aspect. I think the coastal is still the biggest in question aspect here. The good thing is 9/10x whatever is happening in the day 3-5 range typically flips on it's head so maybe it trends NW in a day or 2 for the eastern folks.
WeatherNext is about to run again I believe. Fingers are crossed for a good run.
Yep it makes it hard to give up on these until 24 hours or so before showtime when its likely more evident that its not going to happen
6z GenCast (another model from Google that I recently started ingesting) 
This is another model I didn't know anything about. It seems to be trending in the right direction too.
packfan98
Moderator
Anybody have the MOGREPS while we wait?
packfan98
Moderator
Here's the 12z Canadian Ensembles
packfan98
Moderator
Very similar to the Canadian Ensemble I just posted. Cool.
Trying to predict this thing is probably not worth it on these maps dear gracious
blueheronNC
Member
Google coming even drier / farther east. Unreal.
Coastal looks east, ULL providing all the action...
bncho
Member
Wednesday IMO will be a huge day in terms of modeling. The most volatile piece, the TPV, will be sampled, and should provide clarity regarding the final solution. The model outputs matter right now, but I wouldn't get too hung up on any trend/solution until tomorrow.
BrickTamland
Member
Where can you view the WeatherNext runs?
blueheronNC
Member
If Weathernext2 wins this with its dry / east solution with the ULL providing the only lift, we may as well just look at it and no other models going forward.
foothillscrewzone
Member
It's not that bad of a run, especially for leeside enhancement folks
BrickTamland
Member
Right now it's GFS and Canadian with a monster storm, WeatherNext, UK and ICON are huge misses, and Euro and Euro AI are somewhere in the middle.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m ready for that ULL high ratio powder!
Yep. Probably time to shift focus. This can still be a better than good snow event as it stands. ULL hard to nail down and often gets beefy right up into go-time. We’ll be fine
Not over here
It won’t be 39” but I will be shocked if the bulk of yall North Carolina boys don’t see snow with this setup