Brandon10
Member
Icon almost with two rounds. Appetizer for ENC then the main low gets going. Def tick west.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Brandon10
Member
Still not a huge improvement, but a move in the right direction.
NBM 3 run trend, includes most recent run hot off the presses. Cut back a little SW while increasing amounts NE. If we can get WN2 to start ticking west, I'd feel great about this
BrickTamland
Member
ICON still too far south and east for most of NC except the OBX and SE part of the state. It's the most eastern solution right now and probably the one that has swung the most from west to east the last 24 hours.
rburrel2
Member
Love the consistent donut hole minima right over my backyard in Pickens county. 
It’s perfectly placed in the same spot across all models.
It’s perfectly placed in the same spot across all models.
Cary_Snow95
Member
I'd like to point out how comical it is that we are 84-96 hours from onset, maps are printing huge totals, and we still aren't sure if it is a complete whiff to the east. Combine that with the last weekend and mets have to be nervous about which direction to go with this
it was a fair reasonable step in the right direction after misbehaving last night. let's pray the euro camp follows suit.
BrickTamland
Member
Isn't that how it is 90% of the time with winter storm threats here?
Need to see the tpv energy dig back into Missouri, preferably kansas. We will get burried if that happens
I like the way the SS continues to lift out and orient SW to NE
LovingGulfLows
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Icon actually had precip associated with the Rockies S/W in GA, but unfortunately it's too warm near the surface at that point for any snowfall.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
FWIW, and just for long term purposes, the map here will change in the future.
iGRXY
Member
The ICON is a big step in the right direction and reversed itself after the disaster at 0Z. Definitely much more in the GFS/CMC/UK/EUROAI group
wow
Member
The ULL snow bubble around NC/SC is too reminiscent of Dec 2000. We were all expecting the ULL to pull the precip west and it never happened. It's got to really dig south to make it work and then get that trough axis tilted back.
Stormsfury
Member
ICON wanted to but just a little too east when the bombogenesis happened
One of my weather bucket list things to do, is go to the Outer Banks during a snowstorm and sled down Jockeys Ridge.
12z ICON (higher ratios ~10"?):
Stock photo:
12z ICON (higher ratios ~10"?):
Stock photo:
Brandon10
Member
ICON Ensemble Mean is wetter to the NW than the operational...and the 6z ICON EPS as well
My area alone went from .10 to .25
My area alone went from .10 to .25
Blizzard at Ocracoke there on the Icon..sheesh
rburrel2
Member
That surface trough over northeast Georgia is going to produce, big time. It’s pinging too hard on global models… with high ratios, there could be a stationary band of insane totals from that.
We love for that trough to trend over my way a little, lol. Doesn’t look like it’s happening though.
We love for that trough to trend over my way a little, lol. Doesn’t look like it’s happening though.
The Crazy Nephew has the early TPV extension tilt with the base back in Missouri. The CMC may be another good run.
SnowNiner
Member
I'm not sure I knew the ICON had an ensemble mean. lol.
NBAcentel
Member
Icon-EPS. Pretty much all of this is from the system itself
SnowNiner
Member
Are you talking about the mesolow that was discussed yesterday in that area? Is it still there, I haven't noticed it.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Yeah been seeing that too. That's why I hate trying to rely on an ULL, especially from that direction. It either needs to be coming from SW or we have to get a gulf tap or western upstate is going to be in screw zone.Love the consistent donut hole minima right over my backyard in Pickens county.
It’s perfectly placed in the same spot across all models.
The RGEM has the little system rolling through the deep south out ahead improved, too. The boundary layer is a little too warm for most, but some wet snow would likely occur over north ALA and Ga. if the rates continue to improve.
From what I've heard, the models have improved enough that they should catch the error (from 2000) more easily. At least going right up to the event. But, could this be an issue with the ICON whereas the specific calculations for this setup are still not correct. Of course I'm hoping for that ....
they have fastest maps; but they purposely produced low quality to get them out faster
The base digging back into MO, preferably Kansas, is the key to bombogensis. All you have to watch and it will tell you how things shake out a few frames latter
sometimes when you're desperate you just click around on different model sites to see what they have. pivotal happens to have icon ens. no idea if they're good. meteorological equivalent to seeing what's in your empty fridge and wondering if sour cream on toast tastes good
NBAcentel
Member
GFSAI
NBAcentel
Member
Ummm 
Is there some sort of downslope issue there that models might be seeing?Love the consistent donut hole minima right over my backyard in Pickens county.
It’s perfectly placed in the same spot across all models.
Oconeexman
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Thats a bullseye thats gonna shift east or west in time. Right now its ptsd for us watching everybody else get smoked. I dont think it pans out that way tho because it has most of NE Ga in a precip maximum. If that happens then we should do fine along the savannah river.
Agree. I’ll take anything at this point that moves the precip shield W & SW. Flat, weak, east is the concern. Just based on where the TPV wave / western extension of it enters the U.S., we have ‘work’ to do for it to not drop too far east