i think there will be an intriguing CAMs vs Globals split
at this point i think the AIs provide the chassis, globals show what's possible, CAMs nail down the minutia
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
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at this point i think the AIs provide the chassis, globals show what's possible, CAMs nail down the minutia
For Alabama and Georgia. We need to keep an eye on the little short wave that kicks off a weak slider before the cyclone bombs off the Atlantic coast, too. It wouldn't take much for the precip shield to expand to the north a bit.
t
t
Is this the only model showing this shortwave?
Packsox03
Member
Just out of curiosity, what are the 2m temps at RDU on the CMC
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
No. Pretty much all of them have it to some degree.
This little feature in Arkansas, along with some energy from the Baja region, tries to touch off a GOM SLP.
Tsappfrog20
Member
So I dug back into our previous thread and this was the same lead time everything shifted and the players were exposed. We lost the long flat overrunning look on the 00z runs on Monday the 19th (GFS tried to keep it somewhat but the trend was apparent) and it became evident that we were going to amp. The Canadian was the first model to bark as it showed a low running inland and tried to rain out the wedge
As posted, another excellent model run tonight by the UKMet (remember how the Pangu and Spire runs were dropping the wave farther west 
NBAcentel
Member
Legit trend here to greatness on the AIGEFS
Brandon10
Member
Anyone have CMC ensemble snow output?
Question: what is the snow pocket in LA? Interesting feature there.
Makeitsnow
Member
Im happy that north/ne ga is continuing to be targeted by the leeside trough/meso low but I can't help but be jealous and envious of the Carolinas. Just once it would be nice if we as a whole got slammed and not have to sit back and watch others get amounts we in Georgia have hardly ever seen. That being said, its rather amazing the models are showing this band of heavier snow. It makes me wonder what the final outcome would be once the short term/higher res models get in range. I would imagine, as others have mentioned too there could be a rather impressive area of enhanced totals higher than what the global models are showing.
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NBAcentel
Member
If we get a deep ULL like that, the backside has shallow streamer potential given the very low tropopause heights and shallow low level moisture
Lake effect snow off the Quachida River?
Stormsfury
Member
Well, it was confined further south. Charleston never went above 45, and that was extremely brief, and Savannah was held to the low 50s. It missed Augusta by 30 degrees.
Assume you mean higher in GA. Would be nice. But there’s a point where one has to wonder what is too much snow. At what point do roofs start collapsing?
Don’t think that will be an issue in GA though. After this last storm, I’d not want too much snow hanging over my head. I’d be happy with 4-6 inches. Though I’d not be sad with a foot.
I’m sure these totals will come down. Seems they always do. But I do hope the folks in the Carolinas get something that makes up for the drought. Just not roof collapsing.
LovingGulfLows
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Don't think 1-2 feet is roof collapsing plus this will be dryer, lighter snow. Not the heavy wet snow variety so they should fine if these amounts came to fruition.
00z AIFS
hmm..
True. I’m still suffering PTSD from this last storm. Thankfully that nightmare didn’t pan out, but it’s gonna take some getting used to before I’m cheering on extremes again.
Was hoping to take a break, but this is so close to maybe something. I can’t look away. Yet again, I’m here until all hope is lost or we score!
Edit: sorry. Thought this was in banter. Ya sure there isn’t a site setting to show the thread name near the reply box? Cuz nobody wants to read abt me needing therapy in a storm thread.
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Brandon10
Member
Weather Next leading the way. Most all models except ICON and CMC following that print
NBAcentel
Member
What I really like is while there’s less coastal influence, the ULL driven stuff still stands firm. Very wxnext like 
It was dialing in last week on the footprint outcome as well. Might be a ceiling on this thing after all
NBAcentel
Member
It’s not 17” and not as great as last run but it’s still a pretty good event on the AI, further south as well. would be prettier with the kuchera maps 
Makeitsnow
Member
Lol are you being serious? 20 inches of 20 to 1 snow is the same weight as 8 inches of 8 to 1 snow. Last I checked 8 inches of snow doesn't collapse roofs unless its made of card board. But nevermind any of that because no one is going to sniff anything close to that or half of that either. Which is my point.
interesting it had this southward swoon around then, ended up verifying far north of this though
And another Baja low behind this!
Y’all lookin’ real nice rolling into Feb
euro @hr69 looking east and less separated, no huge shifts but i think this will take a step back from 18z
wow
Member
Looking at the 500mb maps, it's quite consistent. It's a hair further south. Details on QPF amounts and expansion of the precip won't be ironed out for a while. I like it!
There’s no CAD with this? I don’t see its imprint on the surface
Euro footprint in line
Gnight fellas
Gnight fellas
dsaur
Member
Bringing the ull thru Ala. gets Ga into the def bands and some good amounts as opposed to dropping down thru the Carolinas and giving w Ga squat. I'd like to see it turn east around LaGrange. Get Ala involved.
NBAcentel
Member
Euro kinda making the same move as the AI but it still looks fine to me, just need to not keep that eastward advancement of the vort going like it’s done the last 2
Like a damn Hurricane!
It’s just overrunning a cold airmass already in place out ahead Mack
What is euro about to cook up in the long range??
