Well, looks like we'll get that watch.
Mesoscale Discussion 0984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2019
Areas affected...South and North Carolina through southern and
central Virginia...Maryland and Delaware
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 051652Z - 051845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should undergo a gradual increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon from the Carolinas to the
Middle Atlantic, posing a risk for mainly damaging wind and some
hail. Trends are being monitored, and a WW will probably be needed
for at least a part of this region by 18-19Z.
DISCUSSION...This afternoon a warm front extends from central MD
southwest as a stationary front through southwest VA and the western
Carolinas. A moist warm sector with dewpoints around 70F have
advected through this region, and as diabatic heating boosts
temperatures into the mid 80s, MLCAPE should increase to around 2000
J/kg. Satellite and RAP analysis data show a shortwave trough
(embedded within a broad upper trough) moving through the southern
Appalachians. Ascent attending this feature along with orographic
forcing should foster thunderstorm development over the higher
terrain of the western Carolinas. Other storms will develop in the
confluent flow regime present in the warm sector and along the
stationary front. A belt of stronger winds in the 850-500 mb layer
is spreading east in association with the shortwave trough and will
contribute to 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. Mixed storm modes with
mostly multicell line segments are expected, but some of the
discrete storms could develop modest mid-level updraft rotation.
