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Severe June 5th Severe Weather Discussion/Obs

BirdManDoomW

BirdManDoomW

WilkesboroDude
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Slight risk on day 2 out for NC. More areas may be included and upgrade possible if derecho forms to our north-west.
 
Slight Risk now expanded southward to include Wilkesboro, Mount Airy and Boone. Marginal risk all of Charlotte NC metro. Damaging winds poss. Iso tornadoes not the main threat.
 
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SPC AC 041730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2019

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST REGION...
 
18z NAM really favors Georgia and South Carolina too with damaging storms.
 
I would be concerned with north Georgia upstate sc and western nc. Even a broken line of storms will be damaging with hail and damaging winds. I’m really concerned with the hail threat as depicted on the soundings on the Nam. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a severe thunderstorm watch issued for more areas then just western nc. Because I think further south gets some strong storms to.


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Jessy89 said:
I would be concerned with north Georgia upstate sc and western nc. Even a broken line of storms will be damaging with hail and damaging winds. I’m really concerned with the hail threat as depicted on the soundings on the Nam. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a severe thunderstorm watch issued for more areas then just western nc. Because I think further south gets some strong storms to.


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Click to expand...

Skeptical on the hail threat, while Hail growth zones with be large tommorow, lacking mid level lapse rates, saturated soundings, freezing levels slowly lifting go against hail formation, good environment for damaging winds tho
 
Still some solid damaging wind soundings tommorow, large CAPE +DCAPE = scattered microbursts, soundings are very saturated which could actually aid in stronger winds if the BL can mix out a bit like the hrrr shows 2E98409F-7B94-464A-B6BD-49C49DB1FB02.png
 
2000 cape possible storms could contain large hail intially I think before transitioning to more of a wind threat as the day progresses. If the MCS from the north-west survives it would likely be damaging winds > hail late in the day for the central or southern mountains.
 
Last edited:
SPC UPDATE. Removed slight risk in the north near West Virginia and added much of North Carolina and South Carolina into a slight risk.
 
Raleigh NC to Columbia SC back to north-east Georgia included in SLIGHT RISK. Short term modeling favors damaging winds pushing through East Tennessee into the Carolinas.
 
Not sure if I agree with removing some of eastern Kentucky and south-west Virginia out of the SLIGHT but they are the experts. Short term modeling disagrees.
 
Also, renewed development is expected in lee of the apps. A few locations (West Jefferson, Statesville, or nearby) may be skipped over without a drop of rain per some models as severe weather develops near or EAST of i77.
 
Well, if we don't get a watch and stay in the slight risk, we might actually get a tornado threat around here today.

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Brick Tamland said:
Well, if we don't get a watch and stay in the slight risk, we might actually get a tornado threat around here today.

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Click to expand...
False causation is a dangerous way to think. Instead check the parameters, CAPE, and other factors. A watch doesn't cause storms to die and a lack of watches doesn't create more storms.
 
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