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Pattern June 2024

SD said:
Maybe the heat and lack of rain are getting to me but I'm all aboard. I'm concerned about a couple of things but we don't get those jet dynamics alot in the summer
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The couple of things you're concerned about will win out, persistence is the rule.
 
It might actually be going to rain here in a few minutes. We have a shower getting close to us now.

Edit: That shower got us and there are a couple of more showers popping up upstream of us. SE upslope flow doing its thing in the GSP county warning area now.
 
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Metwannabe said:
The couple of things you're concerned about will win out, persistence is the rule.
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Idk man the hrrr over mixes the bl Sunday and still does this hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_fh42-48.gif

I'm still worried about what forms upstream Saturday afternoon that might kick an ofb or debris clouds into the area but if we can avoid that setup is looking better than 24 hrs ago
 
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SD said:
Idk man the hrrr over mixes the bl Sunday and still does this View attachment 148182

I'm still worried about what forms upstream Saturday afternoon that might kick an ofb or debris clouds into the area but if we can avoid that setup is looking better than 24 hrs ago
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Yeah you're right I'm sure, you know more about this than I'll ever know. It's just, not to be that guy lol, last couple years it seems when a pattern/system/set-up/dynamics are right to produce xyz, more times than not they fail. Whether it's cold, snow, severe, rain, etc....if there's a fly that can get in the ointment, it does. I'm getting to be a pessimist in my old age 🤣
 
Metwannabe said:
Yeah you're right I'm sure, you know more about this than I'll ever know. It's just, not to be that guy lol, last couple years it seems when a pattern/system/set-up/dynamics are right to produce xyz, more times than not they fail. Whether it's cold, snow, severe, rain, etc....if there's a fly that can get in the ointment, it does. I'm getting to be a pessimist in my old age 🤣
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I understand I hope that I'm not convincing myself this is better than it is. If we miss tomorrow though this drought is going to hit the turbo button with dews in the 50s most of next week and highs near 100 by the 4th which gets a lot of places to basically 30 days with no rain. That's the usual point for a lot of turf grasses to go from dormancy to death and shallow rooted trees to start going. Not great
 
I do not have access to the long range European model but the GFS has been persistent about the next good chance of rain being late next weekend into early the following week for Central North Carolina if we strike out again tomorrow. By then our area might as well be 🌵. I'm🙏 that we get some rain tomorrow.
 
SD said:
I understand I hope that I'm not convincing myself this is better than it is. If we miss tomorrow though this drought is going to hit the turbo button with dews in the 50s most of next week and highs near 100 by the 4th which gets a lot of places to basically 30 days with no rain. That's the usual point for a lot of turf grasses to go from dormancy to death and shallow rooted trees to start going. Not great
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Add on the insane number if idiots that will still shoot fireworks in neighborhoods on the 4th even without rain, reckon the fire depts will be busy.....gotta hope the models are right with that line Monday morning, even then by the 4th it will be like it didnt even happen....that said I am seriously suspect of any image that looks like this at 6am....

1719674748262.png
 
ENC is pleasant temperature wise. It’s borderline chilly here at the beach. Y’all don’t know what heat is. 75 Monday. Need to hoist a windchill warning
 
Bah....need these to actually move or form over my for once...I mean it's gotta happen eventually right?

KMHX - Digital Storm Total Accum., 3_51 PM (1).png
 
.43” today. I pulled up the monthly data today and realized why I’m not in the abnormally dry area. Turns out we got over 3 inches of rain earlier this month while I was in Maine so we are close to 4” for the month.
 
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