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July Surprise!

ryan1234 said:
I am counting down the days until I move to Nashville. Close enough to home but also closer to being in a prime severe weather spot. Go up 65 and Hoosier Alley is right there. Plus Nashville has had some nasty ones too.
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Never heard of Hoosier Alley but I'm assuming that's in Indiana ?
 
smast16 said:
Not in that kinda heat. Breezes feel like when you open the over to check the roast, and you get that blast wave come out...

That's a breeze in the desert
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THIS. The occasional breeze felt like a blow dryer on max in your face. We could literally feel our skin shriveling up immediately after getting out of the truck. Facing the sun added a distinct burning/stinging sensation on exposed skin (the back of our calves seemed to be the most sensitive). After just a couple of minutes of standing there in upper 120s with no shade it feels like someone is rubbing sandpaper on a sunburn. 110 feels pleasant now lol. Fun little side trip, very scenic with beautiful mountains.
 
Tomorrow looks balls on walls terrible, warm mid levels for days with poor mid level lapse rates, if there’s any hope, it’s the weak convergence zones/classic summertime surface troughs could fire of a few isolated storms, but these soundings are very cruel to deep, tall convection, extremely dry air aloft don’t help In this situation 149A257D-4BF9-4ADC-9D7F-445A446B3D2B.png8EC94913-FFA6-411D-BED6-40B81F99EBF1.png
 
SD said:
Thanks but it's dead. Just amazing how it can rain day after day in the same places meanwhile I'm killing July at .4
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Rain begets rain, drought begets drought :D
 
112 in Del Rio today, tied for hottest day ever

was "only" 101 here hardly record breaking for mid July
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Tomorrow looks balls on walls terrible, warm mid levels for days with poor mid level lapse rates, if there’s any hope, it’s the weak convergence zones/classic summertime surface troughs could fire of a few isolated storms, but these soundings are very cruel to deep, tall convection, extremely dry air aloft don’t help In this situation View attachment 44188View attachment 44189
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Love the 3k and hrrr firing storms near by. Bet I get one today 8 minutes of rain right back into sun
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Fab fri, don’t tell me the truth, I’m all in already View attachment 44216View attachment 44217View attachment 44218View attachment 44219
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I’ve had my on Friday for a couple days now because after trying to push east, it looks like the heat ridge relaxes or at least shifts back west. It seems like that is when we’ve had the best opportunities for organized storms so far this summer. I do find it interesting that no matter what models are saying a week to 10 days out, the center of that heat ridge just never pushes all the way to the east coast. The halfway point is meteorological summer is tomorrow, so you just have to wonder if that is just going to be the primary pattern for the rest of the summer.
 
Interesting, could see some storms fire over Union County due to boundary layer convergence. DP is 72 here, 65 in CLT. Although, I am pessimistic. Been screwed once too many times.
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve had my on Friday for a couple days now because after trying to push east, it looks like the heat ridge relaxes or at least shifts back west. It seems like that is when we’ve had the best opportunities for organized storms so far this summer. I do find it interesting that no matter what models are saying a week to 10 days out, the center of that heat ridge just never pushes all the way to the east coast. The halfway point is meteorological summer is tomorrow, so you just have to wonder if that is just going to be the primary pattern for the rest of the summer.
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Don't Jynx us. Go knock on wood man...
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve had my on Friday for a couple days now because after trying to push east, it looks like the heat ridge relaxes or at least shifts back west. It seems like that is when we’ve had the best opportunities for organized storms so far this summer. I do find it interesting that no matter what models are saying a week to 10 days out, the center of that heat ridge just never pushes all the way to the east coast. The halfway point is meteorological summer is tomorrow, so you just have to wonder if that is just going to be the primary pattern for the rest of the summer.
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Yeah I like Friday with a piece of energy that’s embedded in NW flow moves in, I’m thinking we get something similar to last Friday this Friday with multicell clusters, mid level lapse rates are meh but instability looks very large (2500-4000jkgs) so damaging winds could be a threat, especially if we get a organized cluster 94F8799F-960A-402D-A0B4-BBB95A004C63.png6A6821E1-F506-4139-9E56-8114BD976363.png
 
Some showers forming just to my south. Got some pretty good towers as well. Let's see if we can get something going if I had to guess I would say any precip stays to my south.
 
After Friday the gfs has some very active days convection wise, probably the best look of the summer
 
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