Pattern July Fry

[SD]

Its kind of crazy how the models have gotten so extreme in that day 6-14 range. EPS mean backing down 5 degrees for July 4th is IMO pretty significant but maybe I am expecting too much. Feels like we have seen this quite a bit since about 2020 where we get these eye popping cold/snow/rain/heat means that gradually regress toward average. I would expect volatility in the ops but the means doing this is weird.

 

[Downeastnc]

Euro AI really wants to turn on the seabreeze storms in ENC/NESC starting around the 7th or 8th run after run. Not sure if it's reflecting climatology or a real pattern. I don't think we've had any seabreeze storm days yet this year. We've had westerly outflows interact with the seabreeze and blow up into showers but not the pulsing type we'd normally see in summer off the boundary itself as it moves inland.

Even in our worst drought years July seems to pull through at least most of the time. So we shall see.

Typically these heatwaves tend to breakdown with a bang around here. I remember several pretty nasty severe events occurring when the heatwave breaks.

 

[SnowNiner]

Triple digits have been removed from my 7 day NWS forecast. Nice.

And going to the beach this weekend and the high is 90.

 

[BHS1975]

Its kind of crazy how the models have gotten so extreme in that day 6-14 range. EPS mean backing down 5 degrees for July 4th is IMO pretty significant but maybe I am expecting too much. Feels like we have seen this quite a bit since about 2020 where we get these eye popping cold/snow/rain/heat means that gradually regress toward average. I would expect volatility in the ops but the means doing this is weird.

Chaos theory

 

[weather bubba]

Typically these heatwaves tend to breakdown with a bang around here. I remember several pretty nasty severe events occurring when the heatwave breaks.

I remember the derecho around this time of year in 2012 being one of those events. It left a trail of damage through the Midwest and caused a few problems in North Carolina too.

 

[GaWx]

Its kind of crazy how the models have gotten so extreme in that day 6-14 range. EPS mean backing down 5 degrees for July 4th is IMO pretty significant but maybe I am expecting too much. Feels like we have seen this quite a bit since about 2020 where we get these eye popping cold/snow/rain/heat means that gradually regress toward average. I would expect volatility in the ops but the means doing this is weird.

The GFS seems to be the worse offender more often than not. This insanely over the top 12Z 6/25 GFS 24 hour high temp map ending Friday 7/3 at 8PM with widespread 106-110 for Carolinas/VA (which I never believed and instead downplayed) won’t be soon forgotten by me:



Regardless, this dangerous several day long heatwave still means business, especially SC to Hartford!