It probably coold after this
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Pattern July Fry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It probably coold after this
The annual month that is absolutely dreaded. PAIN! With apologies to @tractor girl
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Euro says MCS printer go “brrrr” after the big ridge moves west.
Brent
Member
All these people begging for summer are about to get theirs out here right on schedule like I said weeks ago
At least we lose 40 minutes of daylight...
At least we lose 40 minutes of daylight...
looking back at the 96-97 Super El Nino. It appears the tide started to turn from June into July1996. From July96-Jan 97 GSO averaged BN on temps every month and AN on precip. Usually 3.75-4.25 qpf every month.
Currently GSO has had 2.75 qpf for JUNE and running AN temps. So we should get some more qpf tonight and as we run out the month of June. Getting us up in the 3.0+ qpf for the month. Interested to see with the advancing Super Duper El-Nino if it will mimic 96-97 and be the straw that breaks the camels back . Don't see June coming in BN temps and looks like first few days of July will get off to a AN start, depending on where the death ridge sets up exact shop.
Is this the beginning of the end for the drought? Time will tell
Currently GSO has had 2.75 qpf for JUNE and running AN temps. So we should get some more qpf tonight and as we run out the month of June. Getting us up in the 3.0+ qpf for the month. Interested to see with the advancing Super Duper El-Nino if it will mimic 96-97 and be the straw that breaks the camels back . Don't see June coming in BN temps and looks like first few days of July will get off to a AN start, depending on where the death ridge sets up exact shop.
Is this the beginning of the end for the drought? Time will tell
FYI: Raleigh is sitting at 2.25ish for June so far and Fayetteville like 1.5 qpf.
Curious if yall think this is where we make the U-Turn
Curious if yall think this is where we make the U-Turn
JHS
Member
100% no way. This will not end for another 2-3 months. July and August will be VERY HOT and DRY. Little to no rain anywhere in SC or NC.
Not anymore. I think it's going to be dire by the time we get to September, hopefully the nino actually ninos
Desert doing desert things
Lets hope so
AI euro wasn't that bad besides a pretty typical heatwave for this time year leading into July 4th.
tennessee storm
Member
lil Mickey Mouse heat wave loading 
EPS mean popping over 100 leading into the 4th, 600dm ridge centered over Tn into the OH Valley, dont make them much hotter around here
JHS
Member
I have never seen forecast highs at RDU like this before, even taking into account this is the GFS model run and it is nine days out. The death ridge that will be building over the Southeast means business.
Looks like potentially a number of recurving typhoons over the next 2 weeks, probably going to oscillate between heat ridge and big trough pattern until that stops
I just looked at the maps:
1. 1986’s strongest H5 over the SE were on July 6 and 7. Unfortunately they’re too large to load here. Go here to see them:
June 30th-July 6th link: July 6th shows NE NC near the center of a ridge that is likely in upper 590s with GSO probably ~596.
July 7th-13th link: July 7th shows a very slight strengthening and repositioning of the ridge but is still likely ~597-8 centered near GSO.
2. 2012’s highest H5 over NC wasn’t as strong as 1986:
On June 29th, when GSO had its hottest of that summer, 102, this was the H5 (594 at CLT and ~592-3 at GSO):
Others during 2012:
July 23rd: ~592 GSO
Aug 5th: ~594 GSO
Aug 31st: the highest H5 of the summer with likely ~596dm at GSO/RDU but high temps were only low 90s:
*Edited for typos
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Downeastnc
Member
A lot of folks like to shoot the big fireworks in the backyards around here, most will not be taking into account the dry drought conditions. Gonna be a lot of yards and brush fires lol.
I'm attending a black powder shoot on Saturday and even with the recent rains we've seen, I'm hoping the grass where we are shooting at has been mowed recently. Those black powder rifles can emit plenty of sparks which could have us stomping out fires if we are not careful.
Pain
Boom!
Downeastnc
Member
Seen this go by by several times the last few months, a lot of the wetter mid and long term looks end up trending to the same ole same ole.....for what it is worth though this is one of the wetter looks on the 16 day GFS as well.
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Looking at the temperatures on the GFS and Euro for late next week's heat wave, the GFS has a maximum high of 106 for the period and the Euro had 98. The NWS at RDU has a high of 104 for next Thursday in their text forecast. I guess we know which camp they are in.
Sheesh yall be safe up in NC
The eps mean being 100-105 across most of the state is super impressive. Last time we did this a couple of years ago this setup got dunked on and chopped on the eastern flank by energy toppling the ridge. I don't think this year can do that with the ridge center nudged slightly east. As of today it'll be a top 10 hottest 7 day period most in nc have ever experienced in their backyard
The latest Euro and Icon are suggesting that H5 heights will reach a max of ~598 dm at some point over GSO within the July 1-3 period. They have as much as 597 dm as of 8AM. A 597 would more than likely be approaching the all time record high for there at 12Z, which often runs a couple of dm lower than an afternoon max. For comparison, it reached ~597-598 dm at GSO at 12Z on 7/7/1986 per old maps I saw yesterday. I have no way of knowing if that’s the highest on record though without spending at least many hours going through numerous maps.
My NWS point forecast for D6 is 103 and D7 is 106. I’ve never seen that before.
I'm impressed. Don't *think* I've ever seen NWS forecast anywhere near 106 more than 3 days in advance around here. (Much less 6 days in advance)
I don’t think so either. It’s bold. They’re literally forecasting us to tie our all-time record high six days out. This is similar to forecasting 12-18” of snow six days out. Of course, RDU just recovered from getting a couple inches from a storm that NWS had maps showing 12-18” over some parts of the area a couple days out, so why not?
Just checked and my point&click has 107 on Thurs.
. That's worth a saved screenshot for the archives.
Perfect timing with the HOLIDAY weekend next week and I’ve got a Savannah Bananas game to attend on 7/3
Glad it will be the hottest week of summer!
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
At least it will be a dry heat ! Dew Points only in the 60s !Just checked and my point&click has 107 on Thurs.
View attachment 196554
I’ve never been to a Savannah Bananas game! Actually, they play only about a dozen games in SAV now because the big $ are at much larger stadiums elsewhere. They’re the Harlem Globetrotters of baseball.
JHS
Member
I thought I had read that GSO hit 600 dm in 1986, but I can find any evidence of it.
Edit: It looks as If I may be wrong since google shows 5980 as the highest height there.