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Pattern July Fry and Dry

It seems to me that with this much northwest flow we have had and are getting later, that the ring of fire would have set up somewhere, but it just is not happening. Those MCS' are nowhere to be found so far and no real signs of them showing up.

If we can get here it'll be the start of the mcs party as we establish a nice thera E gradient and start zipping energy down the troughgfs-ens_z500_vort_us_36.png
 
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You’re welcome, jrips.

We’ll get an early test of the two models today. (Note that I just corrected errors in my earlier post where I said the highs were for KATL when they’re really for KPDK (NE ATL station/Chamblee for those who don’t know)).

For today at KPDK/Chamblee, the 0Z GFS has a high of 100 vs only 93 for the 0Z/6Z Euro, a whopping 7 F cooler on day 1! FFC is going in between with mid 90s, which I bet will do well.

At 11AM it was 88 in Chamblee. The 0Z GFS had 90 for then vs the 0Z/6Z Euro’s 86. So, it’s currently halfway between.

Verification of today’s high at KPDK (NE Atlanta/Chamblee):

Today’s 0Z GFS had 100; 0Z Euro had 93

Actual was 95, meaning actual was in between but 0Z Euro closer:

..THE DEKALB PEACHTREE AIRPORT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 22 2025

VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 9999 TO 9999

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...............................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 95 2:39 PM

@jrips27
 
Verification of today’s high at KPDK (NE Atlanta/Chamblee):

Today’s 0Z GFS had 100; 0Z Euro had 93

Actual was 95, meaning actual was in between but 0Z Euro closer:

..THE DEKALB PEACHTREE AIRPORT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 22 2025

VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 9999 TO 9999

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...............................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 95 2:39 PM

@jrips27
1753229729882.png

Seems a little suspect to me, but it is what it is.

KPDK

1753229951700.png
 
If we can get here it'll be the strat of the mcs party as we establish a nice thera E gradient and start zipping energy down the troughView attachment 173607
I'd like to see that ridge center back over the 4 corners area...just a tad west.

Either way, going to be hot for as far as the eye can see. Need those NW flow events. Some of those could be quite strong, given the heat and moisture that's likely to be in place.
 
It continues to be fascinating to me how all the pop-up storms seemingly swing and miss involving my house. But I can say that if the clouds block out the sun and there's a bit of a breeze, it can actually be tolerable in the evening.

Edit: Noticed a thunderstorm statement on my MSN page about 30 minutes ago, initially thought that had no chance of missing, but yep, it most likely will. Just incredible stuff.
 
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The 18z Euro is not backing down and has 100+ from Sat to the end of its run. The 100+ temps could very well be going to happen.
 
I had no rain during the daytime, but I’ve had light rain falling the last couple of hours along with some mainly CTC lightning/rumbling thunder. Total rainfall for today has been only ~0.05”.
 
Euro had one day of extreme 850s most days were 21-23c which recently has translated to 95-97 minus at the rdu airport. Op euro has also had the tendency to over heat 2mT over the last few years only to walk it back in the last 72 hours
 
Euro had one day of extreme 850s most days were 21-23c which recently has translated to 95-97 minus at the rdu airport. Op euro has also had the tendency to over heat 2mT over the last few years only to walk it back in the last 72 hours
Yeah, I don't buy the 100s+ way out. But even so, it's going to be hot and humid, with many temps in the mid-upper 90s and heat indexes probably near or over 100 for a good long time. Just unrelenting. Hoping for another backdoor front near the first of the new month.
 
Isn't "apparent temp" basically HI? If so these might be legitimate. If not, I don't think this will happen for actual temps.

GSP 90 degree day streak now 32 for third all time and just one day behind 2nd place from 1999. If we don't break it tomorrow or Thursday we will be into the 40s before the next possible shot. Forecast for each of the next 2 days is 89 but I don't think we have any realistic shot of staying below 90. Will take sustained heavy cloud cover or storms and that's not been happening. What a rediculous pattern this is and it's only July 22nd.

BTW, CAE has not been below 75 since the 13th and has not been below 70 since June 8th. Interestingly, as hot as its been, they've only reached 100 once, which is below average for them.
 
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Isn't "apparent temp" basically HI? If so these might be legitimate. If not, I don't think this will happen for actual temps.

GSP 90 degree day streak now 32 for third all time and just one day behind 2nd place from 1999. If we don't break it tomorrow or Thursday we will be into the 40s before the next possible shot. Forecast for each of the next 2 days is 89 but I don't think we have any realistic shot of staying below 90. Will take sustained heavy cloud cover or storms and that's not been happening. What a rediculous pattern this is and it's only July 22nd.

BTW, CAE has not been below 75 since the 13th and has not been below 70 since June 8th. Interestingly, as hot as its been, they've only reached 100 once, which is below average for them.
They keep getting in on pop up storms even if 99% of the state does not see them. There have been 5-6 times only 1-2 storm show up in SC but were around CAE.
 
The RDU Inferno Gauge has 69 on it. So their streak is over.

Good news for those of us in the summer can't end fast enough crowd. We've lost our 8 weeks of twilight as we roll into work. 1st sign I use to gauge Summer is on the slow downhill slope. HS/College football practice kicks into high gear in one week. Then it's Cane season. Hang in there, Labor day is only about 38ish days away.
 
The RDU Inferno Gauge has 69 on it. So their streak is over.

Good news for those of us in the summer can't end fast enough crowd. We've lost our 8 weeks of twilight as we roll into work. 1st sign I use to gauge Summer is on the slow downhill slope. HS/College football practice kicks into high gear in one week. Then it's Cane season. Hang in there, Labor day is only about 38ish days away.
Wilmington has dipped to 71 but is back up a degree right now. We will continue our 70+ streak but it feels like fall outside with a temp of 71 and dp of 69.........that's my guage of how horrible this summer has been. When your DP is around 70 and that feels comfortable then it's been hot for too long.
 
The GFS continues showing inferno like temperatures starting this Sunday and continuing for six consecutive days at above 100 degrees. While this is probably turning up the heat a bit too much, there is no question that next week is going to be miserable for most of us.
 
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